Marshall @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Missouri State

Weather at kickoff94°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Marshall

1-1 · Power #114

▲ winner

Final

Missouri State

1-1 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

MRSH -4

✓ MRSH W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 29–26 MOST

✓ MRSH (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMRSH -4.5

CloseMRSH -4

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -4.5

0.5 → MOST

CloseMRSH -4

0.5 pts toward Missouri State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -4.5 · closed MRSH -4 · moved 0.5 toward MOSTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 48% (146 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMRSH -4.5

CloseMRSH -4

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 4-point road favorite at MOST, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 4; 57.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SHSU @ NMSU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	10–37	L	U52.5
Close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	USA @ GAST 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-6	38–31	W	O54
Close	LIB @ UTEP 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-1.5	19–8	W	U46.5
Close	APP @ GAST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	41–20	W	O55.5
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	49–21	W	O54
Close	AFA @ CSU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	42–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
MOST LW	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; MOST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UU	0-2	0%	1-1
MOST UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 721 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MOST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MRSH 0–1 MOST MOST leads · 1 game since 2023 · MOST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	Missouri State 21 @ Marshall 20	MRSH -7.5	MOST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.9 →−10.3▼ 4.4#110

MOST−11.7 →−13.7▼ 2.0#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MRSH

Longer bar = better

MOST

#122

Offense

MOST better ▶

#107

#125

Defense

MOST better ▶

#108

−1.0 #122

Turnovers

MOST better ▶

+0.5 #47

58 plays #117

Pace

Even

59 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #134	32.0 #121	Even
Yards / play	3.97 #134	5.24 #76	MOST
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.16 #111	Even
Success rate	38% #107	46% #124	Even

When MOST has the ball

Even matchup

	MOST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #100	35.5 #127	MOST
Yards / play	5.39 #107	5.95 #112	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.34 #135	MOST
Success rate	36% #125	47% #127	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 79 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	0.0	7.0	7.0
MOST allowed	4.5	5.0	9.5	10.5	12.0	22.5

MOST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.0	10.0	17.0	7.0	0.0	7.0
MRSH allowed	12.0	6.5	18.5	10.5	6.5	17.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.