Ball State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Liberty

Weather at kickoff84°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-1 · Power #132

final

Final

Liberty

1-1 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -14.5

✓ LIB W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 18–33 LIB

✓ LIB (86%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -14.5

CloseLIB -14.5

Total55.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -14.5

no move

CloseLIB -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

▼ 6

Close49.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -14.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -17.5

model LIB -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 58% (140 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -14.5

CloseLIB -14.5

Total55.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 14.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 51–15; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.8 against an average line of 14.4; 52.8 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	SC vs VAN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	47–6	W	U53.5
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	WMU vs AKR 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	34–24	W	O48.5
Close	M-OH vs MASS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Close	WKU vs MTSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	42–26	W	O51.5
Loose	USF vs UAB 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	35–25	L	O55.5
Loose	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Loose	ARMY vs CLT 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	24–7	L	U45.5
Loose	WAKE vs DEL 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-17.5	52–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
LIB LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OO	2-0	100%	1-1
LIB UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 686 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−17.4 →−18.8▼ 1.4#135

LIB−8.8 →−5.1▲ 3.7#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BALL

Longer bar = better

LIB

#116

Offense

Even

#117

#126

Defense

LIB better ▶

#61

+0.5 #52

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #53

64 plays #89

Pace

Even

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	BALL off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #107	21.5 #75	LIB
Yards / play	5.05 #119	4.96 #62	LIB
PPA / play	+0.07 #106	+0.03 #65	LIB
Success rate	34% #131	35% #43	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #121	36.5 #130	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #109	7.36 #132	LIB
PPA / play	−0.12 #130	+0.23 #123	Even
Success rate	38% #108	45% #117	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 61 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	0.0	10.0	10.0
LIB allowed	6.5	12.0	18.5	3.0	0.0	3.0

LIB scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	7.0	4.5	11.5	0.0	7.0	7.0
BALL allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	7.0	14.0	21.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.