Temple @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Toledo

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Temple

1-1 · Power #104

final

Final

Toledo

1-1 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -4.5

✓ TEM W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 97 pts

Model before kickoff

TEM 21–27 TOL

✓ TOL (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -4

CloseTOL -4.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -4

0.5 → TOL

CloseTOL -4.5

0.5 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -4 · closed TOL -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward TOLmodel TOL -11

model TOL -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (229 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -4

CloseTOL -4.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 4.5-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 49–48; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 97 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 4.4; 48.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY vs UTSA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	29–24	L	P53
Close	UCF vs UNC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-7	34–9	W	U46.5
Close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Close	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Close	UNLV vs WYO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–14	W	U48.25
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Close	CCU vs ODU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-4	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	LT vs USM 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	30–20	W	U51.5
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEM WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
TOL PW	1-0-1	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TEM away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEM OU	1-1	50%	1-1
TOL OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 649 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEM	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
TOL	6-4 60%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEM−7.3 →−8.6▼ 1.3#102

TOL+1.0 →−1.0▼ 2.0#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TEM

Longer bar = better

TOL

#83

Offense

TOL better ▶

#52

#89

Defense

TOL better ▶

#37

+0.5 #56

Turnovers

◀ TEM better

−1.0 #124

58 plays #115

Pace

Even

59 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEM has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	TEM off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #104	20.0 #67	TOL
Yards / play	5.62 #91	3.80 #16	TOL
PPA / play	+0.14 #72	−0.12 #28	TOL
Success rate	45% #64	34% #37	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #34	20.5 #68	TOL
Yards / play	7.20 #25	5.80 #109	TOL
PPA / play	+0.25 #48	+0.11 #97	TOL
Success rate	39% #101	41% #81	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 45 FBS teams

TEM scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	3.5	6.5	10.0
TOL allowed	6.5	4.5	11.0	0.0	9.0	9.0

TOL scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.0	14.0	21.0	14.0	6.5	20.5
TEM allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.