Akron @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Minnesota

Weather at kickoff60°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-1 · Power #133

final

Final

Minnesota

1-1 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -22.5

✓ MINN W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 13–35 MINN

✓ MINN (94%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -26.5

CloseMINN -22.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -26.5

4 → AKR

CloseMINN -22.5

4 pts toward Akron

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -26.5 · closed MINN -22.5 · moved 4 toward AKRmodel MINN -21.5

model MINN -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 49% (92 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -26.5

CloseMINN -22.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 22.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.1 against an average line of 21.3; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Loose	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Loose	ARMY vs CLT 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	24–7	L	U45.5
Loose	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Loose	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Loose	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-19.5	25–6	L	U48
Loose	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-21	41–28	L	O55
Loose	ND vs PUR 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24.5	56–30	W	O51.5
Loose	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Loose	ARK vs LT 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-23.5	35–14	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
MINN WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OO	2-0	100%	1-1
MINN OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MINN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−15.6 →−16.3▼ 0.7#129

MINN+1.1 →+0.5▼ 0.6#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

AKR

Longer bar = better

MINN

#71

Offense

Even

#62

#96

Defense

Even

#100

0.0 #77

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #75

71 plays #38

Pace

◀ AKR faster

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: AKR offense

	AKR off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #74	22.5 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #78	5.31 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	+0.19 #117	AKR
Success rate	48% #43	45% #120	AKR

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #48	24.0 #87	MINN
Yards / play	5.87 #77	6.44 #123	MINN
PPA / play	+0.13 #82	+0.19 #118	MINN
Success rate	49% #42	37% #55	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 19 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	5.0	13.5	18.5
MINN allowed	7.0	10.5	17.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

MINN scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	8.5	12.0	20.5	8.5	7.0	15.5
AKR allowed	5.0	14.0	19.0	1.5	3.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.