North Carolina @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

2-0 · Power #47

final

Final

Clemson

1-1 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -3

✓ CLEM W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 19–23 CLEM

✓ CLEM (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCLEM -9.5

CloseCLEM -3

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -9.5

6.5 → UNC

CloseCLEM -3

6.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -9.5 · closed CLEM -3 · moved 6.5 toward UNCmodel CLEM -6

model CLEM -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (275 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (104 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCLEM -9.5

CloseCLEM -3

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like CLEM as a 3-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 28–20; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 48 points went over 44.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 19 against an average line of 5.5; 71 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	VT vs ODU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	26–45	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
CLEM LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UU	0-2	0%	2-0
CLEM OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 439 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CLEM	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNC 0–2 CLEM CLEM leads · 2 games since 2023 · CLEM has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Clemson 38 @ North Carolina 10	CLEM -15.5	CLEM W
Nov 18 2023	North Carolina 20 @ Clemson 31	CLEM -7.5	CLEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC−2.1 →+1.2▲ 3.3#62

CLEM+10.7 →+4.5▼ 6.2#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNC

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#47

Offense

◀ UNC better

#135

#26

Defense

◀ UNC better

#94

+0.5 #65

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

−0.5 #108

55 plays #129

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

61 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #95	29.0 #116	UNC
Yards / play	6.81 #37	5.69 #103	UNC
PPA / play	+0.26 #45	+0.10 #90	UNC
Success rate	55% #12	39% #65	UNC

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	CLEM off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #129	6.5 #7	UNC
Yards / play	4.03 #133	3.88 #19	UNC
PPA / play	−0.24 #138	−0.15 #21	UNC
Success rate	27% #138	38% #58	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 19 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.5	8.0	16.5	8.5	0.0	8.5
CLEM allowed	8.5	10.5	19.0	6.5	3.5	10.0

CLEM scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	5.0	4.5	9.5	0.0	6.5	6.5
UNC allowed	5.0	0.0	5.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.