Florida State @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 5:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Alabama

Weather at kickoff94°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida State

1-1 · Power #40

final

Final

Alabama

2-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -18.5

✓ FSU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 18–37 ALA

✓ ALA (91%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -15.5

CloseALA -18.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -15.5

3 → ALA

CloseALA -18.5

3 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -15.5 · closed ALA -18.5 · moved 3 toward ALAmodel ALA -21

model ALA -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 53% (113 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (311 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -15.5

CloseALA -18.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as an 18.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 50–36; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 50.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 18.9; 62.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Close	USC vs MSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-18.5	45–31	L	O55.5
Close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Close	BYU vs WVU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total	-19.5	38–24	L	O46.5
Close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	58–7	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LP	0-1-1	0%	—	0-0-1
ALA WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
ALA OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 725 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	2-8 20%
ALA	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FSU 2–4 ALA (1 tied) ALA leads · 7 games since 1965 · ALA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 30 2025	Alabama 17 @ Florida State 31	ALA -13.5	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+11.5 →+6.2▼ 5.3#41

ALA+20.3 →+22.3▲ 2.0#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FSU

Longer bar = better

ALA

#83

Offense

ALA better ▶

#46

#112

Defense

ALA better ▶

#17

+1.5 #22

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

0.0 #82

67 plays #70

Pace

ALA faster ▶

72 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	FSU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #83	13.5 #40	ALA
Yards / play	5.54 #96	3.53 #10	ALA
PPA / play	+0.20 #58	−0.30 #4	ALA
Success rate	41% #94	29% #14	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #24	22.0 #77	ALA
Yards / play	5.80 #81	6.80 #129	ALA
PPA / play	+0.25 #49	+0.23 #125	ALA
Success rate	51% #31	45% #116	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 71 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	7.0	8.5	15.5
ALA allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	1.5	0.0	1.5

ALA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.5	17.0	25.5	9.0	12.0	21.0
FSU allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	1.5	8.5	10.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.