Louisiana Tech @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Baylor

Weather at kickoff96°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

1-1 · Power #83

final

Final

Baylor

1-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -20.5

✓ LT W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 18–38 BAY

✓ BAY (92%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -17.5

CloseBAY -20.5

Total55.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -17.5

3 → BAY

CloseBAY -20.5

3 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open55.5

▼ 5

Close50.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -17.5 · closed BAY -20.5 · moved 3 toward BAYmodel BAY -18.5

model BAY -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (110 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (310 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -17.5

CloseBAY -20.5

Total55.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 20.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 36–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 20; 50.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Loose	CIN vs BGSU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-22	34–20	L	O46.5
Loose	GT vs TEM 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	45–24	L	O52.5
Loose	ILL vs CMU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-21	30–9	P	U50
Loose	MSU vs EMU 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	35–7	W	U49.5
Loose	BOIS vs FRES 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-17.5	7–30	L	U47.5
Loose	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Loose	PITT vs CMU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-21.5	45–17	W	O48.5
Loose	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-17	26–21	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
BAY WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OO	2-0	100%	1-1
BAY UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 721 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BAY	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−8.8 →−8.2▲ 0.6#101

BAY+4.5 →+6.0▲ 1.5#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

BAY

#85

Offense

Even

#87

#55

Defense

BAY better ▶

#19

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

◀ LT better

−0.5 #105

57 plays #118

Pace

BAY faster ▶

92 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	LT off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	47.0 #20	10.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #79	3.90 #20	BAY
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	−0.13 #25	BAY
Success rate	31% #135	29% #15	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	BAY off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #77	25.5 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #106	4.53 #47	LT
PPA / play	+0.10 #94	−0.08 #36	LT
Success rate	44% #70	35% #44	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 61 FBS teams

LT scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	10.5	24.5	35.0	7.0	5.0	12.0
BAY allowed	3.0	3.5	6.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

BAY scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	8.5	12.0	20.5	3.5	6.0	9.5
LT allowed	6.5	0.0	6.5	7.0	12.0	19.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.