Colorado @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Colorado

2-1 · Power #63

final

Final

Baylor

2-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -8.5

✓ BAY W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 22–31 BAY

✓ BAY (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -8.5

CloseBAY -8.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -8.5

no move

CloseBAY -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -8.5 · unchangedmodel BAY -10

model BAY -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (179 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -8.5

CloseBAY -8.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as an 8.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 23–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 8.5; 48.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Very close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Very close	BC vs CAL 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-6	24–28	L	U54.5
Very close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	UVA vs WAKE 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	9–16	L	U48.5
Very close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
BAY WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
BAY UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BAY	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

COLO 1–0 BAY COLO leads · 1 game since 2023 · COLO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Baylor 31 @ Colorado 38	COLO -2.5	COLO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO−0.7 →−1.2▼ 0.5#69

BAY+4.5 →+5.2▲ 0.7#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

COLO

Longer bar = better

BAY

#84

Offense

Even

#86

#81

Defense

BAY better ▶

#22

−0.7 #109

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #101

70 plays #34

Pace

BAY faster ▶

84 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	COLO off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #104	13.0 #22	BAY
Yards / play	5.84 #87	4.18 #17	BAY
PPA / play	+0.19 #62	−0.07 #25	BAY
Success rate	43% #83	33% #22	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #67	25.0 #90	BAY
Yards / play	5.60 #97	5.21 #73	COLO
PPA / play	+0.13 #86	+0.09 #81	Even
Success rate	42% #92	40% #78	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.0 #66	9.3 #69	16.3 #74	3.3 #112	4.7 #103	8.0 #124
BAY allowed	4.3 #64	2.3 #15	6.7 #27	0.0 #1	6.3 #75	6.3 #21

BAY scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	8.0 #50	12.3 #43	20.3 #41	5.3 #84	6.3 #82	11.7 #94
COLO allowed	4.7 #72	10.3 #112	15.0 #99	4.7 #67	5.3 #61	10.0 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.