Arizona @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Washington State

Weather at kickoff59°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arizona

2-1 · Power #31

▲ winner

Final

Washington State

1-2 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -11.5

✓ WSU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 30–19 WSU

✓ ARIZ (79%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -13.5

CloseARIZ -11.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -13.5

2 → WSU

CloseARIZ -11.5

2 pts toward Washington State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -13.5 · closed ARIZ -11.5 · moved 2 toward WSUmodel ARIZ -11.5 matches the line

model ARIZ -11.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 50% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (251 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -13.5

CloseARIZ -11.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as an 11.5-point road favorite at WSU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 34–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 11.4; 59.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Close	KSU @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	19–24	L	U45.5
Close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9	24–8	W	U47
Close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Close	SMU @ BC 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	45–13	W	O54.5
Close	PITT @ STAN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	48–14	W	O51.5
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
WSU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; WSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
WSU UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 629 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
WSU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARIZ 1–0 WSU ARIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Arizona 44 @ Washington State 6	WSU -7.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+8.6 →+7.7▼ 0.9#38

WSU+0.5 →−5.0▼ 5.5#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

WSU

#42

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#113

#58

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#83

−1.3 #133

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #124

66 plays #75

Pace

◀ ARIZ faster

56 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #72	21.7 #66	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #47	5.65 #98	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.29 #36	+0.08 #77	ARIZ
Success rate	52% #13	42% #90	ARIZ

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	WSU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #117	17.3 #44	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.48 #102	5.14 #68	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.06 #71	ARIZ
Success rate	39% #115	38% #49	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.0 #46	14.0 #21	22.0 #29	4.7 #93	4.7 #107	9.3 #111
WSU allowed	4.3 #73	7.0 #63	11.3 #66	3.3 #42	7.0 #93	10.3 #69

WSU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	2.3 #124	4.7 #126	7.0 #130	7.0 #56	7.7 #65	14.7 #61
ARIZ allowed	5.7 #97	2.3 #11	8.0 #34	2.3 #27	7.0 #93	9.3 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.