Northern Illinois @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arizona

Weather at kickoff85°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

0-2 · Power #134

final

Final

Arizona

1-1 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -34.5

✓ NIU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 7–41 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -35.5

CloseARIZ -34.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -35.5

1 → NIU

CloseARIZ -34.5

1 pt toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -35.5 · closed ARIZ -34.5 · moved 1 toward NIUmodel ARIZ -33

model ARIZ -33

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 51% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (354 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -35.5

CloseARIZ -34.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 34.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 42–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 41.5 against an average line of 34.9; 50.7 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs AKR 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-33.75	68–0	W	O47.5
Close	TULN vs CLT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-31	27–0	L	U52.5
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	IOWA vs MASS 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-35.5	47–7	W	O44.5
Close	OHIO vs MASS 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-33.5	42–14	L	O53.5
Close	IU vs KENN 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-35.5	56–9	W	O51.5
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Close	M-OH vs KENT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-30.5	34–7	L	U47.5
Loose	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Loose	TEX vs SHSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-39.5	55–0	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
ARIZ LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UO	1-1	50%	0-2
ARIZ UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 737 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
ARIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−14.7 →−18.1▼ 3.4#134

ARIZ+8.6 →+7.8▼ 0.8#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NIU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#133

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#64

#103

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#59

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

◀ NIU better

−1.5 #133

61 plays #110

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	NIU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #135	17.5 #44	ARIZ
Yards / play	3.54 #138	5.17 #68	ARIZ
PPA / play	−0.18 #137	+0.09 #83	ARIZ
Success rate	36% #123	37% #40	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #94	34.0 #122	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.32 #62	5.40 #84	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.14 #82	+0.13 #99	Even
Success rate	52% #18	43% #105	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 128 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	0.0	8.5	8.5	0.0	3.5	3.5
ARIZ allowed	3.5	3.5	7.0	3.5	7.0	10.5

ARIZ scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.5	10.5	19.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
NIU allowed	17.0	10.0	27.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.