North Dakota State @ Sacramento State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Sacramento State

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

North Dakota State

3-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Sacramento State

1-2 · Power #138

final

Closing spread

NDSU -26.5

✓ SAC W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NDSU 37–14 SAC

✓ NDSU (95%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -23.5

CloseNDSU -26.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNDSU -23.5

3 → NDSU

CloseNDSU -26.5

3 pts toward North Dakota State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NDSU -23.5 · closed NDSU -26.5 · moved 3 toward NDSUmodel NDSU -9.5

model NDSU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (315 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -23.5

CloseNDSU -26.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like NDSU as a 26.5-point road favorite at SAC, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NDSU won 31–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 41 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 9.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Below normal · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.6 against an average line of 22.2; 58.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Loose	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-24	55–0	W	O53
Loose	TULN @ UAB 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-19.5	71–20	W	O52
Loose	JMU @ CCU 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-24	59–10	W	O54.5
Loose	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24	35–14	L	U54
Loose	LIB @ NMSU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-22	30–24	L	P54
Loose	MIA @ TEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & rest	-23.5	41–7	W	O46.5
Loose	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Loose	MEM @ UAB 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-23.5	24–31	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
SAC LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2

Venue/role: NDSU away, as favorite; SAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
SAC UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
SAClast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NDSU−11.9 →−6.2▲ 5.7#89

SAC−16.9 →−18.1▼ 1.2#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NDSU

Longer bar = better

SAC

#70

Offense

◀ NDSU better

#121

#26

Defense

◀ NDSU better

#78

+1.7 #12

Turnovers

◀ NDSU better

−1.0 #126

65 plays #83

Pace

Even

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NDSU off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #53	25.7 #96	NDSU
Yards / play	5.71 #93	5.64 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #63	+0.08 #73	Even
Success rate	44% #69	37% #43	SAC

When SAC has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	SAC off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #108	13.0 #21	NDSU
Yards / play	4.96 #121	4.11 #18	NDSU
PPA / play	−0.06 #129	−0.17 #7	NDSU
Success rate	36% #124	39% #59	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 128 FBS teams

NDSU scoring against the SAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	5.7 #72	15.0 #18	20.7 #39	12.7 #7	3.0 #115	15.7 #45
SAC allowed	0.0 #1	17.7 #127	17.7 #110	4.7 #61	3.3 #23	8.0 #43

SAC scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SAC scored	4.7 #86	9.0 #71	13.7 #88	3.3 #102	7.0 #66	10.3 #97
NDSU allowed	2.3 #19	4.3 #32	6.7 #24	0.0 #1	6.3 #71	6.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.