Purdue @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Purdue

1-1 · Power #59

final

Final

UCLA

2-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -13.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 90 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 22–35 UCLA

✓ UCLA (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -14

CloseUCLA -13.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -14

0.5 → PUR

CloseUCLA -13.5

0.5 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -14 · closed UCLA -13.5 · moved 0.5 toward PURmodel UCLA -14

model UCLA -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 54% (143 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -14

CloseUCLA -13.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 13.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 52–38; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 12.3; 56.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-12.5	24–34	L	O54.5
Very close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Very close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	35–21	W	U57
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LW	1-1	50%	—	1-0
UCLA WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR OO	2-0	100%	1-1
UCLA OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 685 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UCLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−1.8 →−1.7▲ 0.1#71

UCLA+2.1 →+7.1▲ 5.0#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PUR

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#38

Offense

Even

#42

#107

Defense

UCLA better ▶

#25

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

+1.0 #34

78 plays #6

Pace

◀ PUR faster

60 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #33	17.0 #41	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #65	4.19 #21	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.35 #18	−0.13 #17	Even
Success rate	50% #35	32% #20	Even

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #52	28.5 #109	UCLA
Yards / play	6.88 #31	6.10 #111	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.24 #48	+0.21 #119	UCLA
Success rate	49% #37	42% #87	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	8.5	4.5	13.0	12.0	8.5	20.5
UCLA allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

UCLA scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	21.0	24.5
PUR allowed	5.0	6.5	11.5	1.5	8.0	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.