Buffalo @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Penn State

Weather at kickoff64°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

1-1 · Power #125

final

Final

Penn State

2-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -39.5

✓ PSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 5–43 PSU

✓ PSU (100%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -39.5

ClosePSU -39.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -39.5

no move

ClosePSU -39.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -39.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -34

model PSU -34

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 38.5–40.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 55% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -39.5

ClosePSU -39.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 39.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 55–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 41.1 against an average line of 38.6; 53.3 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-41	49–21	L	O56
Close	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5
Loose	ND vs SYR 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-36.5	70–7	W	O51
Loose	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-41.5	56–0	W	O54
Loose	ND vs CMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-34.75	41–17	L	O51.25
Loose	TEX vs SHSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-39.5	55–0	W	O51.5
Loose	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Loose	TTU vs OKST 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-37.5	42–0	W	U56.5
Loose	TEX vs UTEP 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-39.5	27–10	L	U52.5
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
PSU WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UO	1-1	50%	1-1
PSU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 645 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
PSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.9 →−13.7▼ 0.8#121

PSU+12.7 →+14.5▲ 1.8#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BUFF

Longer bar = better

PSU

#121

Offense

PSU better ▶

#40

#72

Defense

PSU better ▶

#31

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+1.5 #20

73 plays #25

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

67 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	BUFF off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #115	4.5 #1	PSU
Yards / play	4.44 #130	3.94 #22	PSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #104	−0.01 #52	PSU
Success rate	33% #133	36% #49	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #50	25.0 #91	PSU
Yards / play	6.79 #39	5.51 #92	PSU
PPA / play	+0.38 #22	+0.03 #64	PSU
Success rate	48% #47	35% #41	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 19 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	1.5	8.5	10.0	4.0	6.5	10.5
PSU allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	3.0	3.0

PSU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	8.5	8.5	17.0	12.0	7.0	19.0
BUFF allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	8.0	1.5	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.