Bowling Green @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Iowa State

Weather at kickoff75°F12 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

0-2 · Power #129

final

Final

Iowa State

1-1 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -22.5

✓ ISU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 9–33 ISU

✓ ISU (95%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenISU -22.5

CloseISU -22.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -22.5

no move

CloseISU -22.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -22.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -27.5

model ISU -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 49% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenISU -22.5

CloseISU -22.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 22.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 55–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.6 against an average line of 24.3; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	SC vs AKR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-25	50–7	W	O41.5
Close	OHIO vs KENT 2023 · Week 6 · close	-24.5	42–17	W	O45.5
Close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	TOL vs KENT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-25.5	45–10	W	O48.5
Close	SJSU vs KENN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	31–10	W	U42
Close	MIZ vs MTSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	23–19	L	U47.5
Loose	WIS vs MTSU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-28.5	42–10	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
ISU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UO	1-1	50%	0-2
ISU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 361 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
ISU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BGSU 0–3 ISU ISU leads · 3 games since 1977 · ISU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−12.7 →−17.5▼ 4.8#132

ISU+6.2 →+4.7▼ 1.5#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BGSU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#127

Offense

ISU better ▶

#97

#133

Defense

ISU better ▶

#28

−1.0 #116

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+1.0 #30

58 plays #116

Pace

◀ BGSU faster

51 plays #138

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	BGSU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #137	13.0 #30	ISU
Yards / play	4.65 #123	3.91 #21	ISU
PPA / play	−0.13 #133	−0.13 #27	ISU
Success rate	37% #116	33% #33	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #92	38.0 #133	ISU
Yards / play	5.52 #99	8.21 #136	ISU
PPA / play	+0.18 #63	+0.30 #131	ISU
Success rate	32% #134	47% #131	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 19 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	0.0	3.5	3.5	1.5	5.0	6.5
ISU allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	0.0	4.5	4.5

ISU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	3.0	3.5	6.5
BGSU allowed	10.5	15.5	26.0	0.0	12.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.