Iowa State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Iowa

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

1-0 · Power #49

final

Final

Iowa

1-0 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -14

✓ ISU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 16–29 IOWA

✓ IOWA (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIOWA -11.5

CloseIOWA -14

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -11.5

2.5 → IOWA

CloseIOWA -14

2.5 pts toward Iowa

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -11.5 · closed IOWA -14 · moved 2.5 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -11

model IOWA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 92%, covered 60% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (303 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIOWA -11.5

CloseIOWA -14

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like IOWA as a 14-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 29 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18 against an average line of 14.9; 44 points a game (usually 52.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	LOU vs JMU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-15.25	28–14	L	U56.75
Loose	UTAH vs BAY 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-14.5	23–12	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU L	0-1	0%	—	—
IOWA W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU U	0-1	0%	1-0
IOWA U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
IOWA	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ISU 2–1 IOWA ISU leads · 3 games since 2023 · ISU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	Iowa 13 @ Iowa State 16	ISU -3.5	IOWA W
Sep 7 2024	Iowa State 20 @ Iowa 19	IOWA -2.5	ISU W
Sep 9 2023	Iowa 20 @ Iowa State 13	IOWA -3.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+6.2 →+4.8▼ 1.4#45

IOWA+11.4 →+12.6▲ 1.2#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ISU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#71

Offense

IOWA better ▶

#57

#32

Defense

IOWA better ▶

+2.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

+1.0 #40

48 plays #130

Pace

IOWA faster ▶

78 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	ISU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #54	0.0 #2	IOWA
Yards / play	6.31 #63	2.18 #8	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.30 #55	−0.49 #7	IOWA
Success rate	36% #111	5% #1	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	IOWA off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #51	10.0 #40	Even
Yards / play	6.50 #58	3.12 #21	ISU
PPA / play	+0.33 #50	−0.23 #33	Even
Success rate	47% #67	27% #32	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.