Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game
Closing spread
NAVY -4.5
✓ FAU W
Total
59.5
▲ Over · 68 pts
Model before kickoff
NAVY 33–29 FAU
✗ NAVY (62%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNAVY -6.5
CloseNAVY -4.5
Total57.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNAVY -6.5
2 → FAU
CloseNAVY -4.5
2 pts toward Florida Atlantic
Total
Open57.5
▲ 2
Close59.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NAVY -6.5 · closed NAVY -4.5 · moved 2 toward FAUmodel NAVY -3.5
model NAVY -3.5
Opened 57.5 · closed 59.5 · moved 2 upmodel 62
model 62
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (155 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (228 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNAVY -6.5
CloseNAVY -4.5
Total57.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
NAVY as a 4.5-point road favorite at FAU. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Florida Atlantic ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Florida Atlantic
2 pts (NAVY -6.5 → NAVY -4.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 2
57.5 → 59.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Navy has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 390 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | |
| 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
NAVY 1–0 FAU
NAVY leads · 1 game since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 2025 | Florida Atlantic 32 @ Navy 42 | NAVY -14.5 | FAU W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NAVY−9.5 →−6.9▲ 2.6#91
FAU−10.2 →−12.4▼ 2.2#119
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#32
Offense
◀ NAVY better#104
#77
Defense
◀ NAVY better#136
0.0 #63
Turnovers
◀ NAVY better−2.0 #126
79 plays #17
Pace
FAU faster ▶90 plays #3
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| NAVY off | FAU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 42.0 #43 | 66.0 #138 | NAVY |
| Yards / play | 6.67 #52 | 9.31 #136 | NAVY |
| PPA / play | +0.51 #21 | +0.62 #134 | NAVY |
| Success rate | 64% #10 | 57% #134 | NAVY |
| FAU off | NAVY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 21.0 #97 | 15.0 #66 | NAVY |
| Yards / play | 4.40 #118 | 6.31 #108 | Even |
| PPA / play | −0.02 #109 | +0.08 #89 | Even |
| Success rate | 40% #93 | 31% #44 | NAVY |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 6 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NAVY7d
FAU7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 169 plays
slowavg 135fast
Quarterback
NAVY backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

