Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game
Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #89
30
final
Final
@
0-1 · Power #102
38
▲ winner
Closing spread
NAVY -4.5
✓ FAU W
Total
59.5
▲ Over · 68 pts
Model before kickoff
NAVY 33–29 FAU
✗ NAVY (62%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNAVY -6.5
CloseNAVY -4.5
Total57.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close
Spread
2 pts toward Florida Atlantic
Total
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NAVY -6.5 · closed NAVY -4.5 · moved 2 toward FAUmodel NAVY -3.5
Opened 57.5 · closed 59.5 · moved 2 upmodel 62
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (155 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (228 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNAVY -6.5
CloseNAVY -4.5
Total57.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for NAVY as a 4.5-point road favorite at FAU. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up to
games
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Florida Atlantic ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Florida Atlantic
2 pts (NAVY -6.5 → NAVY -4.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 2
57.5 → 59.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Navy has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Loading play-by-play…

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NAVY−9.5 →−6.9▲ 2.6#91
FAU−10.2 →−12.4▼ 2.2#119
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

NAVY
Longer bar = better
FAU
#32
Offense
◀ NAVY better
#104
#77
Defense
◀ NAVY better
#136
0.0 #63
Turnovers
◀ NAVY better
−2.0 #126
79 plays #17
Pace
FAU faster ▶
90 plays #3
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NAVY has the ball
Advantage: NAVY offense
NAVY offFAU defEdge
Points / game 42.0 #43 66.0 #138 NAVY
Yards / play 6.67 #52 9.31 #136 NAVY
PPA / play +0.51 #21 +0.62 #134 NAVY
Success rate 64% #10 57% #134 NAVY
When FAU has the ball
Advantage: NAVY defense
FAU offNAVY defEdge
Points / game 21.0 #97 15.0 #66 NAVY
Yards / play 4.40 #118 6.31 #108 Even
PPA / play −0.02 #109 +0.08 #89 Even
Success rate 40% #93 31% #44 NAVY

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
FAU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 6 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NAVY7d
FAU7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 169 plays
slowavg 135fast
Quarterback
NAVY backup QB started
Not the usual starter

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week