Navy @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Navy

1-1 · Power #89

final

Final

UAB

1-2 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -6.5

✓ UAB W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 29–23 UAB

✗ NAVY (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNAVY -11.5

CloseNAVY -6.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -11.5

5 → UAB

CloseNAVY -6.5

5 pts toward UAB

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -11.5 · closed NAVY -6.5 · moved 5 toward UABmodel NAVY -2.5

model NAVY -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (179 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNAVY -11.5

CloseNAVY -6.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 6.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 24–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 5.3; 60.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	JMU @ LIB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–13	W	U46.5
Close	FRES @ SJSU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-4	26–10	W	U47.5
Close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & total	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Close	USU @ UNM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-4.5	44–41	L	O58.5
Close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Close	LIB @ BGSU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	13–23	L	U51.5
Close	JXST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-4.5	24–21	L	U54
Close	UNLV @ NEV 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form	-7.5	42–17	W	O52.5
Close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-5	45–38	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
UAB WLP	1-1-1	50%	0-1	1-0-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OO	2-0	100%	1-1
UAB OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UAB	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NAVY 3–1 UAB NAVY leads · 4 games since 2023 · UAB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	UAB 24 @ Navy 38	NAVY -22.5	UAB W
Sep 28 2024	Navy 41 @ UAB 18	NAVY -5.5	NAVY W
Nov 11 2023	UAB 6 @ Navy 31	UAB -2.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−9.5 →−6.7▲ 2.8#95

UAB−11.8 →−12.0▼ 0.2#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NAVY

Longer bar = better

UAB

#31

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#112

#93

Defense

Even

#89

−1.0 #119

Turnovers

UAB better ▶

−0.3 #90

70 plays #43

Pace

Even

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #49	27.7 #106	NAVY
Yards / play	6.62 #41	5.19 #71	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.33 #24	+0.07 #74	NAVY
Success rate	53% #9	44% #106	NAVY

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #117	26.5 #102	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #124	5.33 #81	NAVY
PPA / play	0.00 #122	+0.19 #116	Even
Success rate	43% #85	40% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	10.5	7.0	17.5	7.0	11.5	18.5
UAB allowed	9.3 #117	10.3 #110	19.7 #124	3.3 #43	4.7 #47	8.0 #44

UAB scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	1.0 #129	9.0 #73	10.0 #113	2.0 #128	9.0 #40	11.0 #95
NAVY allowed	7.0	14.5	21.5	5.0	0.0	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.