Rice @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Fresno State

Weather at kickoff85°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Rice

1-2 · Power #121

final

Final

Fresno State

2-1 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -12.5

✓ FRES W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 14–28 FRES

✓ FRES (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -13.5

CloseFRES -12.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -13.5

1 → RICE

CloseFRES -12.5

1 pt toward Rice

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -13.5 · closed FRES -12.5 · moved 1 toward RICEmodel FRES -16

model FRES -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 56% (120 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (364 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -13.5

CloseFRES -12.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 12.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 38–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 12.5; 54.4 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	41–35	L	O47
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	M-OH vs EMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	44–30	W	O47.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	42–0	W	U43
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	35–26	L	O41
Close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Close	COLO vs WYO 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	37–20	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-1
FRES LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
FRES UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 373 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
FRES	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−14.2 →−14.1▲ 0.1#119

FRES−4.0 →−2.9▲ 1.1#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

RICE

Longer bar = better

FRES

#113

Offense

Even

#106

#97

Defense

FRES better ▶

#59

−0.7 #109

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+1.7 #9

63 plays #101

Pace

◀ RICE faster

58 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	RICE off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #132	17.3 #37	FRES
Yards / play	5.06 #117	5.66 #91	FRES
PPA / play	+0.02 #118	−0.06 #22	FRES
Success rate	42% #86	42% #86	Even

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #94	27.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #88	5.68 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.12 #88	RICE
Success rate	35% #130	44% #103	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	2.3 #127	5.7 #113	8.0 #127	2.3 #129	7.0 #72	9.3 #111
FRES allowed	3.3 #46	7.7 #78	11.0 #59	1.7 #20	4.7 #43	6.3 #19

FRES scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	0.0 #137	12.7 #32	12.7 #96	7.0 #55	5.3 #101	12.3 #83
RICE allowed	10.3 #129	9.3 #103	19.7 #126	3.3 #44	4.7 #43	8.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.