Georgia Tech @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

1-2 · Power #68

final

Final

Stanford

1-2 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

GT -3

✓ STAN W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 27–23 STAN

✗ GT (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGT -4.5

CloseGT -3

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGT -4.5

1.5 → STAN

CloseGT -3

1.5 pts toward Stanford

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GT -4.5 · closed GT -3 · moved 1.5 toward STANmodel GT -5

model GT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (217 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (365 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGT -4.5

CloseGT -3

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GT as a 3-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: STAN won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 4.5; 56.3 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	BOIS @ SDSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	34–31	L	O46.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	FRES @ CSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O47.5
Close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Close	TROY @ ULM 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	37–14	W	O45.5
Close	UNC @ FSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	35–11	W	U50.5
Close	NCSU @ UVA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-8	24–21	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT LLL	0-3	0%	—	0-2
STAN WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: GT away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
STAN OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 676 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
STAN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+7.5 →+2.4▼ 5.1#59

STAN−2.6 →−6.0▼ 3.4#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

STAN

#78

Offense

◀ GT better

#103

#82

Defense

◀ GT better

#128

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

STAN better ▶

+0.7 #40

62 plays #103

Pace

STAN faster ▶

65 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #87	35.7 #129	GT
Yards / play	5.61 #92	6.30 #122	GT
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.32 #135	GT
Success rate	45% #54	47% #124	GT

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: GT defense

	STAN off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #133	23.3 #75	GT
Yards / play	5.23 #112	5.17 #66	GT
PPA / play	+0.18 #66	+0.16 #100	STAN
Success rate	41% #101	42% #87	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

GT scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	5.7 #83	9.0 #74	14.7 #83	6.7 #70	5.7 #97	12.3 #84
STAN allowed	4.7 #76	11.7 #125	16.3 #113	9.3 #130	10.0 #123	19.3 #133

STAN scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	3.3 #117	5.7 #114	9.0 #121	3.0 #122	4.7 #107	7.7 #124
GT allowed	2.3 #28	9.0 #97	11.3 #67	5.0 #74	7.0 #93	12.0 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.