Duke @ Georgia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Georgia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F14 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Duke

4-0 · Power #43

final

Final

Georgia Tech

1-3 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -4.5

✓ GT W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 27–23 GT

✗ DUKE (63%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -6.5

CloseDUKE -4.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -6.5

2 → GT

CloseDUKE -4.5

2 pts toward Georgia Tech

Total

Open50.5

▼ 5

Close45.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -6.5 · closed DUKE -4.5 · moved 2 toward GTmodel DUKE -4.5 matches the line

model DUKE -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (173 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (264 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -6.5

CloseDUKE -4.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 4.5-point road favorite at GT, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 28–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 45.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 4.3; 52.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IOWA @ MD 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	29–13	W	O40.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	21–38	L	O45
Close	SDSU @ FRES 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	23–0	W	U46
Close	TEX @ FLA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	21–29	L	O42.5
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	JMU @ LIB 2025 · Week 4 · close	-7.5	31–13	W	U46.5
Close	MINN @ RUTG 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-6.5	19–26	L	O44.5
Close	BYU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–21	L	O40.5
Close	JMU @ ODU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-1.5	35–32	W	O50.5
Close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	32–39	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	3-0
GT LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-1

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; GT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0
GT UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 524 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
GT	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DUKE 35–57 GT (1 tied) GT leads · 93 games since 1933 · GT has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Georgia Tech 27 @ Duke 18	DUKE -3.5	GT W
Oct 5 2024	Duke 14 @ Georgia Tech 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+3.8 →+6.8▲ 3.0#44

GT+7.5 →+0.2▼ 7.3#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DUKE

Longer bar = better

#39

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#72

#25

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#94

+0.3 #57

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.8 #114

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #38	26.0 #94	DUKE
Yards / play	6.76 #25	5.55 #84	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.27 #27	+0.19 #113	DUKE
Success rate	44% #65	42% #86	DUKE

When GT has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	GT off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #82	11.0 #6	DUKE
Yards / play	5.74 #83	4.51 #17	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.16 #68	−0.02 #34	DUKE
Success rate	45% #53	38% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.0 #59	13.8 #17	20.8 #29	7.8 #43	7.8 #61	15.5 #47
GT allowed	3.5 #49	7.5 #75	11.0 #59	8.0 #117	7.0 #90	15.0 #118

GT scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	6.8 #70	9.3 #72	16.0 #66	5.0 #90	6.0 #94	11.0 #99
DUKE allowed	4.3 #72	5.3 #39	9.5 #45	0.8 #4	0.8 #1	1.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.