North Carolina @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

3-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Duke

4-1 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

DUKE -3

✓ UNC W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 20–24 DUKE

✗ DUKE (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -4.5

CloseDUKE -3

Total54.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -4.5

1.5 → UNC

CloseDUKE -3

1.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open54.5

▼ 8

Close46.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -4.5 · closed DUKE -3 · moved 1.5 toward UNCmodel DUKE -4.5

model DUKE -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (311 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -4.5

CloseDUKE -3

Total54.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 24–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.2 against an average line of 3.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA vs USF 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	31–24	W	O49.5
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Close	ILL vs DUKE 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	27–31	L	O51.5
Close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	PITT vs NCSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-5	53–34	W	O52.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Close	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1
DUKE WWWWL	4-1	80%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2
DUKE UOUOO	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UNC 64–38 DUKE (4 tied) UNC leads · 106 games since 1922 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Duke 32 @ North Carolina 25	DUKE -6.5	DUKE W
Sep 28 2024	North Carolina 20 @ Duke 21	UNC -1.5	DUKE W
Nov 11 2023	Duke 45 @ North Carolina 47	UNC -10	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC−2.1 →+4.4▲ 6.5#50

DUKE+3.8 →+6.4▲ 2.6#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNC

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#80

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#44

#52

Defense

Even

#41

−0.2 #91

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.2 #56

56 plays #135

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	UNC off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #100	14.4 #12	DUKE
Yards / play	5.88 #72	4.95 #42	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.06 #57	DUKE
Success rate	45% #55	39% #54	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #48	19.0 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #38	4.91 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #26	+0.01 #37	Even
Success rate	44% #65	43% #97	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.6 #47	6.6 #108	14.2 #82	6.0 #69	3.2 #133	9.2 #120
DUKE allowed	4.8 #75	5.6 #39	10.4 #51	2.0 #13	2.0 #3	4.0 #1

DUKE scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.6 #85	13.0 #20	18.6 #45	7.8 #41	7.6 #56	15.4 #40
UNC allowed	6.8 #109	2.6 #10	9.4 #35	3.0 #32	6.6 #83	9.6 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.