Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Virginia · Conference game
DUKE 44%56% UVA
Spread
UVA -2.5
open UVA -6.5
Total
47.5
model 47.5
Spread edge
DUKE by 1.5
no lean
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenUVA -6.5
CurrentUVA -2.5
Total53.5 → 47.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenUVA -6.5
4 → DUKE
NowUVA -2.5
4 pts toward Duke
Total
Open53.5
▼ 6
Now47.5
Down 6 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened UVA -6.5 · closed UVA -2.5 · moved 4 toward DUKEmodel UVA -1
model UVA -1
Opened 53.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 6 downmodel 47.5 matches the line
model 47.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (376 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (149 games since 2024)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenUVA -6.5
CurrentUVA -2.5
Total53.5 → 47.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game preview · 1:02
Duke at Virginia: game preview
Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:06 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.
Transcript
The market has moved toward Duke. Here is why that matters. It’s Duke at Virginia, Friday at 7 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Duke 43rd and Virginia 49th. That’s about 1.5 points better than Virginia on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Duke has risen from 50th to 43rd, while Virginia has dropped from 36th to 49th. Kickoff forecast at Scott Stadium: 54 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. Virginia is 3 and 1 against the spread at home. Duke has the better offense, 52nd to 61st. The defenses are close: 45th and 52nd. Our model projects Virginia 25, Duke 23, with a 56 percent win chance. Virginia is favored by 2.5, down from 6.5 at the open, through the key number 3, toward our model. The total opened at 53.5 and sits at 46.5. Our model makes it Virginia by 1, with a total near 47.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview
Books
9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DUKE |  UVA | Over | Under | DUKE | UVA | |
| BetMGMMGM | +2.5-108 | -2.5-110 | 46.5-112 | 46.5-105 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 46.5-115 | 46.5-105 | +114 | -134 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +2.5-110 | -2.5-113 | 46.5-118 | 46.5-106 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUSBetUS | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 47-110 | 47-110 | +110 | -130 |
| BovadaBovada | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 47-105 | 47-115 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKingsDK | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 47.5-108 | 47.5-112 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuelFD | +2.5-106 | -2.5-114 | 46.5-118 | 46.5-104 | +114 | -137 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +2.5-106 | -2.5-106 | 46.5-114 | 46.5-103 | +114 | -134 |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 47-110 | 47-110 | +110 | -135 |
1st-half prices
5 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff
| Book | Spread | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | UVA | Over | Under | |
| BetMGMMGM | -0.5+100 | +0.5-120 | 28.5+200 | 28.5-275 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +2.5-141 | -2.5+106 | 23.5-132 | 23.5+100 |
| BetUSBetUS | +0.5-122 | -0.5+102 | 23.5-117 | 23.5-103 |
| DraftKingsDK | +1.5-135 | -1.5+114 | 23.5-110 | 23.5-110 |
| FanDuelFD | +1.5-138 | -1.5+112 | 23.5-122 | 23.5+100 |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money · at kickoff
Spread
DUKE +2.5UVA -2.5Bets44%
56%
Money57%
43%
Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on DUKE +2.5
Winner
DUKEUVABets28%
72%
Money33%
67%
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like UVA as a 2.5-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.
Compare by
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Show up togames
Favorite won
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.8 against an average line of 3.3; 47.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest |
-4.5 | 17–6 | W | U42.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation |
-3 | 20–24 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest |
-3.5 | 24–35 | L | O49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2 | 21–38 | L | O50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation |
-2.5 | 10–48 | L | O47 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest |
-5.5 | 31–24 | W | O49.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation |
-3 | 28–21 | W | U51 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & total |
-6 | 27–31 | L | O51.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest |
-2.5 | 14–26 | L | U47.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest |
-0.5 | 10–17 | L | U47.5 |
OU
MIZ
UNC
CLEM
SMU
UK
ARK
AUB
UTSA
USF
ILL
TULN
SYR
BCHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Virginia 56%
Projected DUKE 23 – UVA 25 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
UVA -1
Market UVA -2.5
Against the spread
No lean
Below the 3-point lean threshold.
Total
No lean
Model 47.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from UVA’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadUVA rating edge−1.6+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.1=Model marginUVA by 1.0
TotalScoring ratings47.3=Model total47.3
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Virginia 3-1 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 228-230 (50%)
Market moved toward Duke
4 pts (UVA -6.5 → UVA -2.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 6
53.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 1292 games with totals 43.5–51.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| UVA | 6-4 60% | 5-4-1 56% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 3 since 2023
DUKE 34–40 UVA
UVA leads · 74 games since 1890 · DUKE has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6 2025 | Duke 27 @ Virginia 20 | UVA -3.5 | DUKE W |
| Nov 15 2025 | Virginia 34 @ Duke 17 | DUKE -5.5 | UVA W |
| Nov 18 2023 | Duke 27 @ Virginia 30 | DUKE -3 | UVA W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
DUKE+3.8 →+6.3▲ 2.5#43
UVA+7.4 →+4.6▼ 2.8#50
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7
DUKELonger bar = better
UVA#52
Offense
Even#61
#45
Defense
Even#52
+0.3 #54
Turnovers
UVA better ▶+0.7 #20
71 plays #28
Pace
◀ DUKE faster67 plays #66
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When DUKE has the ball| DUKE off | UVA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 31.7 #54 | 19.7 #39 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.26 #49 | 5.00 #40 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.23 #32 | +0.09 #72 | DUKE |
| Success rate | 43% #72 | 40% #57 | Even |
When UVA has the ball| UVA off | DUKE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 30.0 #66 | 16.0 #18 | DUKE |
| Yards / play | 5.45 #103 | 4.97 #37 | DUKE |
| PPA / play | +0.23 #34 | +0.07 #61 | UVA |
| Success rate | 47% #39 | 41% #63 | UVA |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
DUKE scoring against the UVA defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE scored | 4.7 #93 | 12.0 #25 | 16.7 #55 | 7.0 #43 | 8.0 #49 | 15.0 #40 |
| UVA allowed | 2.4 #14 | 8.1 #83 | 10.6 #49 | 4.6 #65 | 4.6 #30 | 9.1 #40 |
UVA scoring against the DUKE defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA scored | 9.4 #19 | 6.4 #105 | 15.9 #64 | 6.4 #61 | 7.7 #54 | 14.1 #55 |
| DUKE allowed | 5.7 #89 | 5.8 #45 | 11.5 #64 | 1.7 #7 | 2.8 #6 | 4.5 #3 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
UVA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
54° · 5 mph
gusts 8 mph · kickoff forecast
Rest
DUKE6d
UVA6d
Even
Tempo
Average 137 plays
slowavg 133fast
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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