East Carolina @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Thu, Oct 22, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

3-3 · Power #92

final

Final

Memphis

5-2 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -10.5

✓ ECU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 22–33 MEM

✓ MEM (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -9.5

CloseMEM -10.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:23

East Carolina at Memphis: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 23, 12:27 AM ET).

Transcript

Memphis beat East Carolina, 41 to 34. Here’s what decided it. East Carolina struck first, an 8-play, 42-yard field goal drive. Memphis went up 34 to 27 in the fourth quarter. East Carolina tied it at 34 moments later. Memphis’ touchdown as time expired made it 41 to 34, the winning score. Third quarter, 10:20 left. Engleman runs it in from 4 yards out. That lifted East Carolina’s win probability by 27 points. Fourth quarter, 3:31 left. Stokes runs it in from 2 yards out. That lifted Memphis’ win probability by 29 points. Fourth quarter, 1:30 left. Griffis finds Sides for a 20-yard touchdown. That lifted East Carolina’s win probability by 33 points. East Carolina led 16 to 3 at the half. East Carolina won the first quarter, 10 to 0. Memphis out-gained East Carolina 484 yards to 421. Memphis won the turnover battle, 1 to 3. Before kickoff, our model had Memphis winning 33 to 22. That pick was right. It projected 55 total points; they scored 75. Memphis was favored by 10.5, and East Carolina covered by 3.5. With 75 points, the game went over the total of 55.5. The model’s side against the spread, Memphis, did not cover. In our power ratings, East Carolina holds at 92nd, and Memphis holds at 62nd. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -9.5

1 → MEM

CloseMEM -10.5

1 pt toward Memphis

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened MEM -9.5 · closed MEM -10.5 · moved 1 toward MEMmodel MEM -11.5

model MEM -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 45% (176 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (351 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -9.5

CloseMEM -10.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ECU	MEM	Over	Under	ECU	MEM
BetMGMMGM	+10-110	-10-120	53.5-112	53.5-105	+333	-425
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+11-116	-11-104	54-110	54-110	+340	-435
BetRiversBetRivers	+11-113	-11-110	54.5-109	54.5-113	+300	-420
BetUSBetUS	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	54-110	54-110	+330	-420
BovadaBovada	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	54-110	54-110	+320	-430
DraftKingsDK	+10.5-115	-10.5-105	55.5-105	55.5-115	+330	-425
FanDuelFD	+10.5-112	-10.5-108	53.5-115	53.5-105	+330	-430
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+11-112	-11+100	54-108	54-108	+340	-435
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	54-110	54-110	+320	-429

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

6 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	ECU	MEM	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+6.5-110	-6.5-108	21.5-235	21.5+180
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+6.5-105	-6.5-115	27+100	27-120
BetRiversBetRivers	+4.5-104	-4.5-129	27.5-115	27.5-115
BetUSBetUS	+6.5-105	-6.5-115	27+100	27-120
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-105	-6.5-115	26.5-115	26.5-105
FanDuelFD	+5.5-106	-5.5-114	27.5-102	27.5-120

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money · at kickoff

Spread

ECU +10.5

MEM -10.5

Bets45% 55%

Money40% 60%

Winner

ECU

MEM

Bets5% 95%

Money3% 97%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Last numbers before kickoff. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 10.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 41–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 10.7; 49.9 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs COLO 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	23–13	W	U54.5
Very close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	31–13	W	U57.5
Very close	ODU vs APP 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	24–21	L	U62.5
Very close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	31–19	W	U57
Very close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Very close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5
Very close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Very close	CAL vs SYR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-10.5	25–33	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-1
MEM LLWWL	4-3	57%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
MEM OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 691 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
MEM	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ECU 18–9 MEM ECU leads · 27 games since 1990 · MEM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Memphis 27 @ East Carolina 31	ECU -2.5	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU+2.1 →−5.5▼ 7.6#92

MEM+1.4 →+1.9▲ 0.5#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ECU

Longer bar = better

MEM

#112

Offense

MEM better ▶

#27

#30

Defense

◀ ECU better

#64

−0.3 #96

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.3 #59

66 plays #75

Pace

MEM faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	ECU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #101	22.3 #58	MEM
Yards / play	5.17 #116	5.91 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.07 #57	MEM
Success rate	39% #117	38% #36	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #34	23.8 #72	MEM
Yards / play	7.36 #5	4.65 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #49	−0.02 #20	ECU
Success rate	49% #19	34% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.8 #79	9.2 #67	15.0 #73	4.0 #114	4.5 #120	8.5 #128
MEM allowed	1.9 #7	11.1 #123	13.0 #79	5.1 #78	4.1 #23	9.3 #43

MEM scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	5.9 #75	10.7 #38	16.6 #57	10.4 #10	8.4 #42	18.9 #10
ECU allowed	2.7 #16	10.8 #121	13.5 #91	3.7 #40	4.5 #30	8.2 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.