Liberty @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Thu, Oct 22, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

5-1 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

Kennesaw State

1-5 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

LIB -8.5

✓ LIB W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 28–20 KENN

✓ LIB (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -8.5

CloseLIB -8.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:11

Liberty at Kennesaw State: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 22, 10:27 PM ET).

Transcript

Final: Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6. This one was never in doubt. Liberty struck first, an 11-play, 85-yard touchdown drive. Kennesaw State’s field goal with 1:11 left made it 34 to 6. First quarter, 7:11 left. Davis runs it in from 1 yard out. First quarter, 2:23 left. Turned over on downs, stopped on 4th and 4. First quarter, 53 seconds left. Purdie finds Coleman for a 56-yard touchdown. Liberty led 14 to 3 at the half. Liberty won the first quarter, 14 to 0. Liberty out-gained Kennesaw State 402 yards to 297. Liberty won the turnover battle, 0 to 2. Before kickoff, our model had Liberty winning 28 to 20. That pick was right. It projected 48 total points; they scored 40. Liberty was favored by 8.5, and Liberty covered by 19.5. With 40 points, the game went under the total of 50.5. The model’s side against the spread, Liberty, cashed. In our power ratings, Liberty moves up from 64th to 59th, and Kennesaw State drops from 111th to 117th. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -8.5

no move

CloseLIB -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened LIB -8.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -9

model LIB -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 53% (119 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -8.5

CloseLIB -8.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LIB	KENN	Over	Under	LIB	KENN
BetMGMMGM	-9.5-110	+9.5-108	50.5-108	50.5-110	-375	+300
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-9.5-110	+9.5-110	50-115	50-105	-385	+306
BetRiversBetRivers	-9.5-110	+9.5-112	50.5-112	50.5-112	-385	+285
BetUSBetUS	-9.5-110	+9.5-110	50-115	50-105	-380	+305
BovadaBovada	-9-110	+9-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	-400	+300
DraftKingsDK	-8.5-108	+8.5-112	50.5-108	50.5-112	-380	+300
FanDuelFD	-9.5-110	+9.5-110	50.5-105	50.5-115	-365	+285
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-9.5-106	+9.5-106	50-114	50-103	-385	+306
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-9.5-110	+9.5-110	50-110	50-110	-380	+290

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

6 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	LIB	KENN	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-6.5-110	+6.5-108	29.5+180	29.5-235
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	24.5+105	24.5-125
BetRiversBetRivers	-9.5+128	+9.5-175	24.5-115	24.5-115
BetUSBetUS	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	——	——
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-112	+6.5-108	24.5+105	24.5-125
FanDuelFD	-6.5-112	+6.5-108	24.5+104	24.5-128

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as an 8.5-point road favorite at KENN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 34–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 7.8; 60.2 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ DEL 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7	30–14	W	U51.5
Very close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Very close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Close	JXST @ FIU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-9	41–16	W	O48
Close	TXST @ ULM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	38–17	W	O50
Close	LT @ KENN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	7–35	L	U46.5
Close	CAL @ WAKE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	46–36	W	O55
Close	MEM @ TULN 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	17–31	L	U55.5
Close	TOL @ EMU 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	34–14	W	U51.5
Close	JXST @ LT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-10	44–37	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LWWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	4-1
KENN LWWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-0

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; KENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UOOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
KENN UUUOU	1-5	17%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
KENN	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LIB 3–3 KENN Series tied · 6 games since 2015 · LIB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Kennesaw State 48 @ Liberty 42	KENN -2.5	KENN W
Oct 23 2024	Liberty 24 @ Kennesaw State 27	LIB -27.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−8.8 →−0.6▲ 8.2#72

KENN−10.4 →−11.2▼ 0.8#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

LIB

Longer bar = better

KENN

#43

Offense

◀ LIB better

#87

#15

Defense

◀ LIB better

#94

+0.5 #34

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

+0.3 #54

64 plays #97

Pace

KENN faster ▶

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #58	23.5 #68	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #35	5.69 #92	LIB
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.15 #103	LIB
Success rate	49% #22	45% #112	LIB

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	KENN off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #108	15.3 #14	LIB
Yards / play	5.68 #88	4.85 #26	LIB
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	−0.04 #17	LIB
Success rate	43% #64	33% #4	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	8.3 #33	6.7 #103	15.0 #73	5.7 #83	10.5 #10	16.2 #28
KENN allowed	3.5 #40	8.0 #79	11.5 #64	7.2 #108	4.8 #39	12.0 #78

KENN scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	4.7 #93	8.0 #87	12.7 #94	6.0 #70	3.7 #131	9.7 #116
LIB allowed	3.8 #44	6.8 #63	10.7 #51	2.3 #19	2.3 #2	4.7 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.