Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Kennesaw State

1-6 · Power #117

projected

Wed 7:00 PM ET

Middle Tennessee

4-3 · Power #126

projected

KENN 51%

49% MTSU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 50

Model line

KENN -0.5

KENN 51% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WWWLL	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MTSU WLLWW	5-2	71%	3-0	—

Venue/role: KENN away; MTSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UUOUU	1-6	14%	1-6
MTSU UUOOO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kennesaw State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs DEL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ SHSU	L17–23WU
Nov 21	vs FIU	W45–26WO

Middle Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs WKU	L26–42LO
Nov 14	@ LIB	L17–37LU
Nov 21	@ SHSU	W31–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KENN 1–1 MTSU Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · KENN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Middle Tennessee 16 @ Kennesaw State 24	KENN -7.5	KENN W
Oct 15 2024	Kennesaw State 5 @ Middle Tennessee 14	MTSU -10.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−10.4 →−12.6▼ 2.2#117

MTSU−15.1 →−15.7▼ 0.6#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

KENN

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#93

Offense

Even

#84

#97

Defense

◀ KENN better

#113

0.0 #81

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+0.7 #24

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ KENN faster

58 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #123	27.6 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #99	6.43 #127	KENN
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	+0.15 #102	Even
Success rate	43% #64	46% #120	KENN

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #105	25.0 #78	KENN
Yards / play	5.83 #72	5.80 #96	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.15 #103	MTSU
Success rate	41% #93	45% #112	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	4.0 #98	7.3 #96	11.3 #103	5.1 #92	3.6 #133	8.7 #127
MTSU allowed	4.4 #59	7.7 #75	12.1 #74	7.6 #112	7.9 #108	15.4 #123

MTSU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #81	5.1 #120	10.9 #107	6.7 #52	5.7 #101	12.4 #86
KENN allowed	5.0 #75	6.9 #66	11.9 #67	7.6 #112	5.6 #53	13.1 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.