Baylor @ UCF: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UCF · Conference game

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Baylor

4-2 · Power #38

projected

Fri 7:30 PM ET

UCF

3-3 · Power #55

projected

BAY 55%

45% UCF

Spread

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Total

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model 47.5

Model line

BAY -2

BAY 55% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	—
UCF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BAY away; UCF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
UCF UOUUO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baylor

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs ISU	L21–43LO
Nov 14	@ BYU	L28–34LO
Nov 21	vs TTU	W59–35WO

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ KU	L20–27LU
Nov 14	vs ASU	L31–35LO
Nov 20	vs ISU	L35–38WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAY 2–0 UCF BAY leads · 2 games since 2023 · BAY has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	UCF 3 @ Baylor 30	BAY -3.5	BAY W
Sep 30 2023	Baylor 36 @ UCF 35	UCF -8	BAY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+4.5 →+8.0▲ 3.5#38

UCF+0.7 →+3.5▲ 2.8#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BAY

Longer bar = better

UCF

#100

Offense

UCF better ▶

#81

#14

Defense

◀ BAY better

#48

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+0.7 #26

82 plays #1

Pace

◀ BAY faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	BAY off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #67	21.7 #50	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #112	5.07 #49	UCF
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	0.00 #33	UCF
Success rate	37% #128	41% #60	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	UCF off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #52	14.7 #10	BAY
Yards / play	5.83 #71	4.59 #20	BAY
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	−0.07 #10	BAY
Success rate	40% #100	35% #15	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.3 #65	10.5 #42	16.8 #52	6.7 #55	6.5 #80	13.2 #71
UCF allowed	4.0 #46	7.2 #70	11.2 #55	3.8 #41	6.7 #84	10.5 #63

UCF scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.0 #12	6.2 #108	17.2 #49	8.2 #24	6.3 #85	14.5 #49
BAY allowed	4.3 #57	2.8 #7	7.2 #14	2.7 #24	4.8 #37	7.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.