Utah @ Cincinnati: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Kickoff forecast74°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah

6-0 · Power #10

projected

Sat 3:45 PM ET

Cincinnati

4-2 · Power #64

projected

UTAH 77%

23% CIN

Spread

UTAH -9.5

no move since the open

Total

56.5

model 60

Spread edge

UTAH by 5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUTAH -9.5

CurrentUTAH -9.5

Total56.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUTAH -9.5

no move

NowUTAH -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

no move

Now56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -9.5 · unchangedmodel UTAH -14.5

model UTAH -14.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Not moved yetModel vs the opening line: UTAH by 4.9 pts (open -9.5, now -9.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 74.6% of the 264 games where the line moved (295 at that gap), but those sides covered 53.1% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUTAH -9.5

CurrentUTAH -9.5

Total56.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UTAH	CIN	Over	Under	UTAH	CIN
DraftKingsDK	-9.5-110	+9.5-110	56.5-110	56.5-110	-340	+270

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 9:54 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 9.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 8.7; 60.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	LSU @ UK 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–35	L	O50.5
Very close	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Very close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8	63–31	W	O54
Very close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5
Very close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WWWWL	5-1	83%	1-1	5-1
CIN WLWLL	3-3	50%	3-1	1-2

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUOOO	4-2	67%	6-0
CIN OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 1299 games with totals 52.5–60.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	10-0 100%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%
CIN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs BYU	L21–24LU
Nov 14	@ ARIZ	L10–23LU
Nov 21	@ TCU	L7–13LU

Cincinnati

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ HOU	W34–0
Nov 14	@ ISU	W38–30WO
Nov 21	vs COLO	L23–34LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTAH 1–0 CIN UTAH leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTAH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Cincinnati 14 @ Utah 45	UTAH -9.5	UTAH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+14.7 →+17.7▲ 3.0#9

CIN+1.4 →+1.0▼ 0.4#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UTAH

Longer bar = better

CIN

#14

Offense

Even

#21

#19

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#112

+0.5 #34

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.8 #16

72 plays #16

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	40.2 #8	26.8 #97	UTAH
Yards / play	6.80 #17	6.16 #117	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.30 #18	+0.21 #116	UTAH
Success rate	50% #12	45% #119	UTAH

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #35	14.8 #12	UTAH
Yards / play	6.99 #10	4.82 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	−0.01 #26	Even
Success rate	47% #34	34% #12	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	12.5 #3	11.5 #28	24.0 #10	6.8 #51	9.3 #23	16.2 #30
CIN allowed	4.5 #62	8.7 #96	13.2 #85	4.8 #71	8.8 #122	13.7 #107

CIN scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.0 #98	8.7 #78	12.7 #94	11.7 #3	10.8 #8	22.5 #1
UTAH allowed	0.5 #1	4.5 #24	5.0 #3	6.3 #93	3.5 #12	9.8 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.