Texas Tech @ Cincinnati: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Kickoff forecast64°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

6-0 · Power #15

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Cincinnati

4-2 · Power #64

projected

TTU 80%

20% CIN

Spread

TTU -11.5

no move since the open

Total

56.5

model 58.5

Spread edge

TTU by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTTU -11.5

CurrentTTU -11.5

Total56.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTTU -11.5

no move

NowTTU -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

no move

Now56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TTU -11.5 · unchangedmodel TTU -12.5

model TTU -12.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 48% (74 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTTU -11.5

CurrentTTU -11.5

Total56.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 0:58

Texas Tech at Cincinnati: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 7:35 PM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Our ratings see a big gap between these two. Texas Tech heads to Cincinnati for a Saturday kickoff at 12 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Texas Tech 15th and Cincinnati 64th. That’s about 14 points better than Cincinnati on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Texas Tech has dropped from 9th to 15th, while Cincinnati has fallen from 61st to 64th. Kickoff forecast at Nippert Stadium: 64 degrees, dry, wind 3 miles per hour. Cincinnati has the better offense, 21st to 35th. Texas Tech has the better defense, 30th to 112th. Cincinnati is 3 and 1 against the spread at home. The model has Texas Tech winning 35 to 23, a 80 percent chance. Texas Tech is favored by 11.5. The total is 56.5. Our model makes it Texas Tech by 12.5, with a total near 58.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	TTU	CIN	Over	Under	TTU	CIN
BetMGMMGM	-11.5-108	+11.5-110	57.5-105	57.5-112	-450	+350
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-11-110	+11-110	56.5-115	56.5-105	-435	+340
BetRiversBetRivers	-11-110	+11-113	56.5-113	56.5-110	-455	+330
BetUSBetUS	-11-110	+11-110	56.5-110	56.5-110	-435	+340
BovadaBovada	-11.5-105	+11.5-115	57-105	57-115	-470	+345
DraftKingsDK	-11.5-112	+11.5-108	56.5-115	56.5-105	-455	+350
FanDuelFD	-10.5-112	+10.5-108	56.5-115	56.5-105	-420	+320
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-11-104	+11-108	56.5-114	56.5-103	-435	+340
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-11.5-110	+11.5-110	56.5-110	56.5-110	-481	+350

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	TTU	CIN	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-6.5-116	+6.5-104	28.5-108	28.5-112
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	27.5-120	27.5+100
FanDuelFD	-6.5-122	+6.5+100	28.5-108	28.5-112

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

TTU -11.5

CIN +11.5

Bets58% 42%

Money58% 42%

Winner

TTU

CIN

Bets95% 5%

Money92% 8%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as an 11.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 10.7; 51.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12	24–20	L	U52
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	TTU @ COLO 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	29–7	W	U50.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-3
CIN WLWLL	3-3	50%	3-1	1-2

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OOOUO	4-2	67%	6-0
CIN OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 1299 games with totals 52.5–60.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CIN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs ARIZ	W28–22WU
Nov 7	vs WVU	W49–0WU
Nov 14	@ OKST	W42–0WU

Cincinnati

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs UTAH	L14–45LO
Nov 7	@ HOU	W34–0
Nov 14	@ ISU	W38–30WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TTU 1–0 CIN (1 tied) TTU leads · 2 games since 1968 · TTU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Cincinnati 41 @ Texas Tech 44	TTU -3.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+19.6 →+15.1▼ 4.5#15

CIN+1.4 →+1.1▼ 0.3#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TTU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#35

Offense

CIN better ▶

#21

#30

Defense

◀ TTU better

#112

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.8 #16

67 plays #62

Pace

Even

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #16	26.8 #97	TTU
Yards / play	6.32 #45	6.16 #117	TTU
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	+0.21 #116	TTU
Success rate	48% #27	45% #119	TTU

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #35	17.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #10	5.15 #53	CIN
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #34	37% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.5 #43	11.2 #35	18.7 #38	7.7 #33	11.5 #5	19.2 #10
CIN allowed	4.5 #62	8.7 #96	13.2 #85	4.8 #71	8.8 #122	13.7 #107

CIN scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.0 #98	8.7 #78	12.7 #94	11.7 #3	10.8 #8	22.5 #1
TTU allowed	4.0 #46	5.7 #37	9.7 #44	4.0 #49	4.0 #18	8.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.