BYU @ UCF: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UCF · Conference game

Kickoff forecast80°F14 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

BYU

6-0 · Power #14

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

UCF

3-3 · Power #55

projected

BYU 71%

29% UCF

Spread

BYU -7.5

open BYU -9.5

Total

43.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

BYU by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBYU -9.5

CurrentBYU -7.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBYU -9.5

2 → UCF

NowBYU -7.5

2 pts toward UCF

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Now43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened BYU -9.5 · now BYU -7 · moved 2.5 toward UCFmodel BYU -9.5

model BYU -9.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (176 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (274 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBYU -9.5

CurrentBYU -7.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:11

BYU at UCF: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:40 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 2.5 points toward UCF since it opened. BYU visits UCF, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, BYU sits 14th, UCF 55th. That’s about 12 points better than UCF on a neutral field. Since the preseason, BYU has risen from 27th to 14th, while UCF has risen from 67th to 55th. Kickoff forecast at Acrisure Bounce House: 79 degrees, dry, wind 12 miles per hour, gusting to 18. UCF comes off a bye. On offense, BYU ranks 23rd and UCF 81st. On defense, BYU ranks 18th and UCF 48th. BYU is 6 and 0 against the spread this season. BYU is 5 and 0 against the spread as favorite. Our model projects BYU 25, UCF 18, with a 70 percent win chance. BYU is favored by 7, down from 9.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 45.5 and sits at 43.5. Our model makes it BYU by 9.5, with a total near 43.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BYU	UCF	Over	Under	BYU	UCF
BetMGMMGM	-7-105	+7-112	43.5-110	43.5-110	-275	+220
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-6.5-121	+6.5+101	42.5-115	42.5-105	-265	+219
BetRiversBetRivers	-7-109	+7-118	43.5-109	43.5-114	-295	+225
BetUSBetUS	-7+100	+7-120	42.5-115	42.5-105	-275	+230
BovadaBovada	-7-110	+7-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	-275	+225
DraftKingsDK	-7.5-108	+7.5-112	43.5-110	43.5-110	-290	+235
FanDuelFD	-6.5-124	+6.5+102	43.5-110	43.5-110	-280	+225
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-7-104	+7-108	42.5-114	42.5-103	-265	+219
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-7-110	+7-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	-276	+215

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	BYU	UCF	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	21.5-104	21.5-116
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	21.5-102	21.5-118
FanDuelFD	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	21.5-106	21.5-114

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

BYU -7.5

UCF +7.5

Bets85% 15%

Money89% 11%

Winner

BYU

UCF

Bets98% 2%

Money96% 4%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 7.5-point road favorite at UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 7.3; 51.2 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ MINN 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	14–20	L	U41.5
Very close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	21–38	L	O45
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Very close	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & total	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	PITT @ BC 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	21–27	L	O42.5
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-11	26–25	L	O45
Close	UGA @ AUB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	20–10	W	U46.5
Close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	5-0
UCF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; UCF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU UOUUO	3-3	50%	6-0
UCF UOUUO	3-3	50%	3-3

In 741 games with totals 39.5–47.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	9-1 90%	8-1 89%	4-6 40%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

BYU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs ASU	L23–28LO
Nov 7	@ UTAH	W24–21WU
Nov 14	vs BAY	W34–28WO

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 30	vs BAY	L3–30LU
Nov 7	@ KU	L20–27LU
Nov 14	vs ASU	L31–35LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BYU 4–1 UCF BYU leads · 5 games since 2011 · BYU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	UCF 21 @ BYU 41	—	—
Oct 26 2024	BYU 37 @ UCF 24	UCF -2.5	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+10.7 →+15.3▲ 4.6#14

UCF+0.7 →+3.4▲ 2.7#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BYU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#23

Offense

◀ BYU better

#81

#18

Defense

◀ BYU better

#48

+0.5 #40

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+0.7 #26

62 plays #114

Pace

Even

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #40	21.7 #50	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #18	5.07 #49	BYU
PPA / play	+0.30 #17	0.00 #33	Even
Success rate	50% #15	41% #60	BYU

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	UCF off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #52	15.2 #14	BYU
Yards / play	5.83 #71	4.42 #11	BYU
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	−0.01 #27	BYU
Success rate	40% #100	35% #20	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.3 #20	12.2 #23	21.5 #16	6.3 #66	5.7 #103	12.0 #88
UCF allowed	4.0 #46	7.2 #70	11.2 #55	3.8 #41	6.7 #84	10.5 #63

UCF scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.0 #12	6.2 #108	17.2 #49	8.2 #24	6.3 #85	14.5 #49
BYU allowed	3.3 #35	4.0 #20	7.3 #16	2.2 #13	5.7 #57	7.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.