Pittsburgh @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F15 mphgusts 22DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh

5-1 · Power #39

final

Final

Boston College

2-3 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -6.5

✓ BC W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 25–17 BC

✗ PITT (71%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -7

ClosePITT -6.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -7

0.5 → BC

ClosePITT -6.5

0.5 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open46.5

▼ 4

Close42.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -7 · closed PITT -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward BCmodel PITT -12.5

model PITT -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (199 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 70% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -7

ClosePITT -6.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 6.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 27–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 5.9; 49.2 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	21–38	L	O45
Very close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5
Close	MINN @ RUTG 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–26	L	O44.5
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	DUKE @ GT 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	25–28	L	O45.5
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-7	31–26	L	O44.5
Close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	PSU @ MSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	28–10	W	U49
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-3	25–21	W	O41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	3-2
BC LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UUUOU	2-4	33%	5-1
BC UUUUU	0-5	0%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 310 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
BC	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

PITT 2–1 BC PITT leads · 3 games since 2023 · PITT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Boston College 7 @ Pittsburgh 48	PITT -6.5	PITT W
Nov 30 2024	Pittsburgh 23 @ Boston College 34	BC -3.5	BC W
Nov 16 2023	Boston College 16 @ Pittsburgh 24	PITT -2.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+6.4 →+8.9▲ 2.5#35

BC−3.2 →−4.8▼ 1.6#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PITT

Longer bar = better

#62

Offense

◀ PITT better

#117

#19

Defense

◀ PITT better

#46

+0.8 #22

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

0.0 #75

73 plays #16

Pace

◀ PITT faster

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #41	23.4 #69	PITT
Yards / play	6.33 #47	4.73 #26	BC
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.02 #38	BC
Success rate	42% #84	39% #49	BC

When BC has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	BC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #122	14.7 #15	PITT
Yards / play	5.41 #105	4.88 #36	PITT
PPA / play	−0.01 #123	−0.04 #19	PITT
Success rate	39% #119	33% #5	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.8 #18	11.2 #39	21.0 #23	7.0 #51	6.8 #70	13.8 #67
BC allowed	1.8 #10	6.8 #60	8.6 #28	6.0 #90	8.8 #119	14.8 #119

BC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	8.0 #42	1.8 #138	9.8 #117	3.6 #113	5.6 #103	9.2 #117
PITT allowed	2.3 #13	6.8 #61	9.2 #34	1.2 #3	4.3 #28	5.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.