Wake Forest @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

5-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

California

3-3 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

WAKE -10

✓ WAKE W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 32–22 CAL

✓ WAKE (76%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -8.5

CloseWAKE -10

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -8.5

1.5 → WAKE

CloseWAKE -10

1.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -8.5 · closed WAKE -10 · moved 1.5 toward WAKEmodel WAKE -9

model WAKE -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 75%, covered 56% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (350 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -8.5

CloseWAKE -10

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WAKE	CAL	Over	Under	WAKE	CAL
DraftKingsDK	-10-112	+10-108	54.5-105	54.5-115	-395	+310

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 10-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 10; 57.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ CAL 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-11.5	20–25	L	U51.5
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Very close	WASH @ UCLA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	48–14	W	O51.5
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Very close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Very close	SMU @ CAL 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	35–38	L	O53.5
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	UVA @ UNC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	17–16	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-2
CAL WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OUUOU	3-3	50%	5-1
CAL UUUOU	2-4	33%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
CAL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WAKE 1–1 CAL Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · WAKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2024	California 46 @ Wake Forest 36	CAL -7.5	CAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+3.0 →+10.3▲ 7.3#27

CAL−0.3 →−1.7▼ 1.4#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WAKE

Longer bar = better

CAL

#23

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#105

#62

Defense

Even

#67

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #64

66 plays #75

Pace

CAL faster ▶

71 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #25	25.5 #83	WAKE
Yards / play	6.61 #24	5.61 #83	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.32 #16	+0.09 #68	WAKE
Success rate	48% #26	37% #32	Even

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	CAL off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #86	21.5 #47	WAKE
Yards / play	5.58 #89	4.70 #24	WAKE
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.12 #88	WAKE
Success rate	38% #122	43% #89	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	8.2 #37	11.0 #35	19.2 #34	8.3 #25	6.8 #70	15.2 #41
CAL allowed	2.8 #20	12.3 #134	15.2 #105	2.2 #12	8.2 #114	10.3 #59

CAL scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	8.3 #34	6.2 #109	14.5 #80	6.3 #64	5.8 #101	12.2 #86
WAKE allowed	4.7 #66	7.8 #74	12.5 #73	2.7 #26	4.2 #25	6.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.