Virginia @ Wake Forest: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Kickoff forecast77°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Virginia

4-3 · Power #49

projected

Sat 3:45 PM ET

Wake Forest

6-1 · Power #20

projected

UVA 21%

79% WAKE

Spread

—

Total

—

model 49

Model line

WAKE -11.5

WAKE 79% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA LWLLP	3-3-1	50%	0-1-1	—
WAKE WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UVA away; WAKE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OUUOU	3-4	43%	4-3
WAKE UUOUU	3-4	43%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%
WAKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs CAL	W31–21WU
Nov 21	vs UNC	W17–16LU
Nov 28	@ VT	W27–7WU

Wake Forest

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs MRMK	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ SMU	W13–12WU
Nov 21	@ GT	L29–30WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UVA 1–1 WAKE Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · WAKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Wake Forest 16 @ Virginia 9	UVA -7.5	WAKE W
Sep 7 2024	Virginia 31 @ Wake Forest 30	UVA -1.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA+7.4 →+4.6▼ 2.8#51

WAKE+3.0 →+13.3▲ 10.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UVA

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#61

Offense

WAKE better ▶

#14

#52

Defense

Even

#46

+0.7 #20

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

+0.1 #63

67 plays #66

Pace

Even

65 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #66	19.4 #36	WAKE
Yards / play	5.45 #103	4.59 #19	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.23 #34	+0.07 #63	UVA
Success rate	47% #39	41% #66	UVA

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #20	19.7 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #15	5.00 #40	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.36 #3	+0.09 #72	WAKE
Success rate	49% #18	40% #57	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.4 #19	6.4 #105	15.9 #64	6.4 #61	7.7 #54	14.1 #55
WAKE allowed	4.0 #46	6.7 #63	10.7 #52	2.3 #16	4.6 #30	6.9 #14

WAKE scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	9.0 #28	12.3 #20	21.3 #18	8.1 #26	5.9 #96	14.0 #57
UVA allowed	2.4 #14	8.1 #83	10.6 #49	4.6 #65	4.6 #30	9.1 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.