Miami @ North Carolina: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Kickoff forecast62°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Miami

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

North Carolina

4-2 · Power #47

projected

MIA 86%

14% UNC

Spread

MIA -14.5

no move since the open

Total

50.5

model 51

Spread edge

MIA by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenMIA -14.5

CurrentMIA -14.5

Total50.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenMIA -14.5

no move

NowMIA -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Now50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -14.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -18.5

model MIA -18.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Not moved yetModel vs the opening line: MIA by 3.8 pts (open -14.5, now -14.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap), but those sides covered 52.2% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 49% (81 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenMIA -14.5

CurrentMIA -14.5

Total50.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

2 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MIA	UNC	Over	Under	MIA	UNC
DraftKingsDK	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	-625	+455
FanDuelFD	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	50.5-115	50.5-105	-750	+520

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 10:55 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 14.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 15.5; 47.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU @ ILL 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-15	34–16	W	U51.5
Very close	TEX @ VAN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-17	27–24	L	P51
Very close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	UTAH @ COLO 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-15.5	27–24	L	O49.5
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	ALA @ OU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-14	3–24	L	U46.5
Close	IU @ PSU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-14	27–24	L	O50.5
Close	OSU @ IOWA 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	31–14	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	4-2
UNC LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	4-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOOO	5-1	83%	6-0
UNC UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 1520 games with totals 46.5–54.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ ND	W27–24WO
Nov 14	vs DUKE	W53–31WO
Nov 21	vs VT	W34–17LO

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ CONN	L14–27LU
Nov 14	vs LOU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ UVA	L16–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 0–1 UNC UNC leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Miami 31 @ North Carolina 41	UNC -2.5	UNC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+21.1 →+24.1▲ 3.0#3

UNC−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIA

Longer bar = better

UNC

Offense

◀ MIA better

#82

#19

Defense

◀ MIA better

#51

+0.8 #15

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.3 #98

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ MIA faster

58 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #1	19.2 #33	MIA
Yards / play	8.07 #1	4.96 #36	MIA
PPA / play	+0.44 #1	+0.02 #41	MIA
Success rate	54% #1	43% #92	MIA

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	UNC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	14.0 #7	MIA
Yards / play	5.73 #82	4.65 #21	MIA
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	−0.02 #21	MIA
Success rate	45% #52	37% #25	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #12	16.8 #1	27.8 #1	10.5 #10	7.7 #54	18.2 #15
UNC allowed	5.7 #89	3.3 #13	9.0 #33	3.0 #31	7.2 #96	10.2 #53

UNC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.0 #34	6.7 #103	14.7 #75	5.0 #95	3.8 #130	8.8 #126
MIA allowed	2.7 #15	3.3 #13	6.0 #7	2.2 #13	4.7 #32	6.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.