Clemson @ Florida State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Florida State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast69°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Clemson

4-2 · Power #52

projected

Sat 7:00 PM ET

Florida State

3-4 · Power #40

projected

CLEM 50%

50% FSU

Spread

CLEM -1.5

Total

51.5

model 54

Spread edge

FSU by 7.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCLEM -1.5

Total51.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCLEM -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now51.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (194 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCLEM -1.5

Total51.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 1.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.7 against an average line of 2.2; 56.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ PUR 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	30–49	L	O48.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	TCU @ HOU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–14	W	U55.5
Close	CLEM @ CAL 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–10	W	U52.5
Close	UK @ LOU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	0–41	L	U45.5
Close	MINN @ PUR 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–41	L	O48.5
Close	UNC @ BC 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-2	21–41	L	O50.5
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-1.75	55–17	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-2
FSU WLWLW	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	3-1-1

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2
FSU OUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4

In 1583 games with totals 47.5–55.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clemson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ SYR	L21–34LO
Nov 14	vs GT	L21–24LU
Nov 20	@ DUKE	L45–46LO

Florida State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ BC	L13–28LU
Nov 13	@ PITT	L31–34LO
Nov 21	vs NCSU	L11–21LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CLEM 17–21 FSU FSU leads · 38 games since 1970 · CLEM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Florida State 10 @ Clemson 24	CLEM -1.5	CLEM W
Oct 5 2024	Clemson 29 @ Florida State 13	CLEM -16.5	FSU W
Sep 23 2023	Florida State 31 @ Clemson 24	FSU -2	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+10.7 →+3.9▼ 6.8#54

FSU+11.5 →+7.3▼ 4.2#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CLEM

Longer bar = better

FSU

#122

Offense

FSU better ▶

#49

#51

Defense

◀ CLEM better

#116

−0.7 #119

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #114

70 plays #35

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #107	27.9 #107	Even
Yards / play	4.88 #128	6.34 #122	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	+0.25 #126	Even
Success rate	37% #129	44% #109	Even

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #56	21.5 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.42 #39	5.05 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	+0.01 #38	Even
Success rate	44% #61	42% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	4.3 #96	8.2 #83	12.5 #97	2.7 #129	7.2 #61	9.8 #112
FSU allowed	3.4 #39	9.7 #111	13.1 #83	4.4 #58	8.1 #112	12.6 #89

FSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.4 #44	9.3 #63	16.7 #54	7.4 #37	6.4 #81	13.9 #61
CLEM allowed	8.0 #125	5.2 #29	13.2 #85	3.8 #41	4.5 #29	8.3 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.