Stanford @ Louisville: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Louisville · Conference game

Stanford

3-4 · Power #97

projected

Sat 3:15 PM ET

Louisville

4-3 · Power #23

projected

STAN 3%

97% LOU

Spread

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Total

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model 58

Model line

LOU -26.5

LOU 97% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-3	—
LOU WLLWL	4-3	57%	3-1	—

Venue/role: STAN away; LOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UOOOU	5-2	71%	3-4
LOU OUOOO	6-1	86%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stanford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ VT	L7–31LU
Nov 21	@ CAL	W31–10WU
Nov 28	vs SMU	L10–34LU

Louisville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ GT	W31–19WU
Nov 14	@ UNC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs PITT	W34–27WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

STAN 1–0 LOU STAN leads · 1 game since 2023 · STAN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Louisville 35 @ Stanford 38	LOU -20.5	STAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−2.6 →−7.9▼ 5.3#98

LOU+9.5 →+12.4▲ 2.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

STAN

Longer bar = better

LOU

#105

Offense

LOU better ▶

#15

#131

Defense

LOU better ▶

#86

0.0 #73

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.9 #14

65 plays #83

Pace

◀ STAN faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #127	27.4 #102	LOU
Yards / play	5.33 #110	5.60 #81	LOU
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	+0.10 #80	Even
Success rate	39% #114	42% #82	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #15	36.6 #133	LOU
Yards / play	7.67 #3	6.50 #128	LOU
PPA / play	+0.32 #15	+0.31 #137	LOU
Success rate	48% #25	47% #124	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.4 #125	5.3 #118	7.7 #129	6.7 #52	3.9 #125	10.6 #101
LOU allowed	5.7 #92	10.1 #117	15.9 #110	6.0 #88	5.6 #53	11.6 #74

LOU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.9 #38	9.4 #62	17.3 #47	11.4 #4	10.0 #14	21.4 #2
STAN allowed	7.6 #122	11.7 #126	19.3 #131	7.0 #105	10.3 #133	17.3 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.