Louisville @ North Carolina: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Louisville

4-3 · Power #23

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

North Carolina

4-2 · Power #47

projected

LOU 66%

34% UNC

Spread

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Total

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model 53

Model line

LOU -5.5

LOU 66% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WLLWL	4-3	57%	0-2	—
UNC LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LOU away; UNC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUOOO	6-1	86%	4-3
UNC UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs PITT	W34–27WO
Nov 28	@ UK	W41–0WU

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ UVA	L16–17WU
Nov 28	vs NCSU	L19–42LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.5 →+12.4▲ 2.9#22

UNC−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

LOU

Longer bar = better

UNC

#15

Offense

◀ LOU better

#82

#86

Defense

UNC better ▶

#51

+0.9 #14

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.3 #98

63 plays #104

Pace

◀ LOU faster

58 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #15	19.2 #33	Even
Yards / play	7.67 #3	4.96 #36	LOU
PPA / play	+0.32 #15	+0.02 #41	LOU
Success rate	48% #25	43% #92	LOU

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	27.4 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #82	5.60 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.10 #80	Even
Success rate	45% #52	42% #82	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.9 #38	9.4 #62	17.3 #47	11.4 #4	10.0 #14	21.4 #2
UNC allowed	5.7 #89	3.3 #13	9.0 #33	3.0 #31	7.2 #96	10.2 #53

UNC scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.0 #34	6.7 #103	14.7 #75	5.0 #95	3.8 #130	8.8 #126
LOU allowed	5.7 #92	10.1 #117	15.9 #110	6.0 #88	5.6 #53	11.6 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.