Boston College @ Notre Dame: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Notre Dame

Boston College

3-3 · Power #79

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Notre Dame

6-1 · Power #1

projected

BC 1%

99% ND

Spread

—

Total

—

model 48.5

Model line

ND -35.5

ND 99% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—
ND LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BC away; ND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UUUUO	1-5	17%	3-3
ND UOOOO	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
ND	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston College

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs SYR	W34–12WU
Nov 28	@ MIA	L20–45LO

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs SMU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ SYR	W70–7WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BC 0–1 ND ND leads · 1 game since 2023 · ND has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Notre Dame 25 @ Boston College 10	ND -30.5	BC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−3.2 →−3.2–#80

ND+24.9 →+26.2▲ 1.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

#114

Offense

ND better ▶

#13

#49

Defense

ND better ▶

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+2.0 #2

65 plays #87

Pace

ND faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	BC off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #117	13.4 #5	ND
Yards / play	5.49 #98	4.30 #6	ND
PPA / play	0.00 #121	−0.08 #9	ND
Success rate	39% #118	35% #13	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #6	23.0 #61	ND
Yards / play	6.52 #33	4.96 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #5	+0.03 #42	ND
Success rate	51% #9	40% #58	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BC scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.8 #39	2.7 #138	10.5 #113	4.2 #112	5.7 #103	9.8 #112
ND allowed	2.4 #14	5.4 #34	7.9 #20	2.7 #26	2.9 #6	5.6 #5

ND scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	11.3 #9	13.7 #11	25.0 #6	6.6 #58	9.6 #21	16.1 #31
BC allowed	3.5 #41	5.7 #37	9.2 #35	6.0 #88	7.8 #103	13.8 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.