Florida State @ Pittsburgh: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Fri, Nov 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Florida State

3-4 · Power #40

projected

Fri 7:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh

5-2 · Power #39

projected

FSU 41%

59% PITT

Spread

—

Total

—

model 56.5

Model line

PITT -3

PITT 59% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WLWLW	3-3-1	50%	2-1	—
PITT WWWLL	4-3	57%	3-2	—

Venue/role: FSU away; PITT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4
PITT UUOUO	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
PITT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs NCSU	L11–21LU
Nov 27	vs FLA	L21–40LO

Pittsburgh

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ LOU	L27–34LO
Nov 28	@ CAL	W17–15LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FSU 1–1 PITT Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · PITT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Pittsburgh 34 @ Florida State 31	FSU -11.5	PITT W
Nov 4 2023	Florida State 24 @ Pittsburgh 7	FSU -20.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+11.5 →+7.3▼ 4.2#40

PITT+6.4 →+7.6▲ 1.2#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FSU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#49

Offense

Even

#61

#116

Defense

PITT better ▶

#23

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

+0.6 #29

65 plays #89

Pace

PITT faster ▶

71 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	FSU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #56	16.4 #22	PITT
Yards / play	6.42 #39	5.03 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	−0.02 #19	PITT
Success rate	44% #61	34% #8	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #45	27.9 #107	PITT
Yards / play	6.30 #47	6.34 #122	PITT
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.25 #126	PITT
Success rate	43% #74	44% #109	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.4 #44	9.3 #63	16.7 #54	7.4 #37	6.4 #81	13.9 #61
PITT allowed	3.0 #30	6.9 #66	9.9 #47	2.0 #11	4.6 #30	6.6 #9

PITT scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.1 #17	9.6 #60	19.7 #27	6.9 #49	6.3 #88	13.1 #74
FSU allowed	3.4 #39	9.7 #111	13.1 #83	4.4 #58	8.1 #112	12.6 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.