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NCAAF · 2026 · Week 11

Illinois @ UCLA

Fri, Nov 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UCLA · Conference game
Illinois
3-3 · Power #53
22
projected
@
UCLA
6-0 · Power #16
35
projected
ILL 14%
86% UCLA
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 56.5
Model line
UCLA -15
UCLA 86% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
UCLA 86%
Projected ILL 22 – UCLA 35 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
UCLA -15
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 56.5
How the model gets there (points from UCLA’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadUCLA rating edge+11.5+Home field+2.5+Travel+1.2=Model marginUCLA by 15.2
TotalScoring ratings56.7=Model total56.7

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ILL+7.7 →+4.0▼ 3.7#53
UCLA+2.1 →+15.3▲ 13.2#15
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10
ILL
Longer bar = better
UCLA
#32
Offense
Even
#40
#115
Defense
UCLA better ▶
#13
−0.2 #88
Turnovers
UCLA better ▶
+1.7 #3
62 plays #113
Pace
UCLA faster ▶
67 plays #58
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ILL has the ball
Even matchup
ILL offUCLA defEdge
Points / game 31.8 #51 16.2 #20 UCLA
Yards / play 6.52 #31 4.59 #20 Even
PPA / play +0.24 #29 −0.15 #2 UCLA
Success rate 49% #16 34% #9 Even
When UCLA has the ball
Advantage: UCLA offense
UCLA offILL defEdge
Points / game 35.5 #34 27.8 #106 UCLA
Yards / play 6.62 #22 5.82 #97 UCLA
PPA / play +0.18 #57 +0.30 #136 UCLA
Success rate 46% #48 46% #122 UCLA
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
ILL scoring against the UCLA defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ILL scored
9.2
#22
9.7
#56
18.8
#37
2.7
#129
9.2
#25
11.8
#90
UCLA allowed
3.3
#35
4.5
#24
7.8
#19
4.0
#48
4.3
#24
8.3
#29
UCLA scoring against the ILL defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
UCLA scored
5.7
#84
9.0
#72
14.7
#75
5.8
#79
15.0
#1
20.8
#5
ILL allowed
5.7
#89
9.7
#110
15.3
#107
3.8
#41
7.7
#98
11.5
#73
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
UCLA +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
ILL7d
UCLA7d
Even
Tempo
Average 130 plays
slowavg 133fast
Travel
ILL 1,690 mi
Model moves the line 1.2 pts

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Illinois← vs NEB · vs IOWA →
UCLA← @ MINN · @ MICH →
ESPN game page ↗
Other Week 11 gamesSame-conference games first
Other Week 11 gamesSame-conference games firstAll 67 ›
NU @ OSU—USC @ IUIU -10PUR @ IOWA—WIS @ MD—WASH @ MSU—MICH @ OREORE -13.5MINN @ PSU—NEB @ RUTG—WMU @ AKR—KENT @ BGSU—
All 67 Week 11 games ›