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NCAAF · 2026 · Week 11

Houston @ Colorado

Fri, Nov 13, 2026, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Colorado · Conference game
Houston
6-1 · Power #21
28
projected
@
Colorado
2-4 · Power #63
23
projected
HOU 67%
33% COLO
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 51
Model line
HOU -6
HOU 67% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Houston 67%
Projected HOU 28 – COLO 23 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
HOU -6
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 51
How the model gets there (points from COLO’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadCOLO rating edge−12.3+Home field+2.5+Travel+3.7=Model marginHOU by 6.1
TotalScoring ratings51.2=Model total51.2

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
HOU+3.9 →+12.7▲ 8.8#21
COLO−0.7 →+1.4▲ 2.1#63
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10
HOU
Longer bar = better
COLO
#9
Offense
◀ HOU better
#112
#78
Defense
COLO better ▶
#49
+0.7 #22
Turnovers
◀ HOU better
−1.0 #130
71 plays #28
Pace
Even
71 plays #20
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When HOU has the ball
Advantage: HOU offense
HOU offCOLO defEdge
Points / game 39.3 #13 25.7 #88 HOU
Yards / play 6.86 #12 5.04 #43 HOU
PPA / play +0.33 #8 0.00 #31 HOU
Success rate 53% #2 38% #34 HOU
When COLO has the ball
Advantage: HOU defense
COLO offHOU defEdge
Points / game 19.5 #124 21.0 #44 HOU
Yards / play 5.54 #96 5.83 #99 Even
PPA / play +0.01 #118 +0.12 #87 HOU
Success rate 40% #109 42% #83 HOU
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
HOU scoring against the COLO defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
HOU scored
10.7
#14
10.4
#42
21.1
#19
11.4
#4
6.7
#74
18.1
#16
COLO allowed
4.0
#46
7.8
#78
11.8
#66
5.5
#82
8.3
#117
13.8
#110
COLO scoring against the HOU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
COLO scored
5.2
#89
4.7
#127
9.8
#118
5.0
#95
4.7
#120
9.7
#117
HOU allowed
2.9
#22
4.4
#23
7.3
#15
7.6
#112
6.1
#65
13.7
#108
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
COLO +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
HOU7d
COLO7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 142 plays
slowavg 133fast
Altitude
HOU +5,315 ft
Model adds 3.7 pts for travel

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Houston← vs CIN · @ WVU →
Colorado← @ ASU · @ CIN →
ESPN game page ↗
Other Week 11 gamesSame-conference games first
Other Week 11 gamesSame-conference games firstAll 67 ›
BAY @ BYU—TTU @ OKSTTTU -15.5UTAH @ ARIZ—ASU @ UCF—CIN @ ISU—KU @ WVU—KSU @ TCU—WMU @ AKR—KENT @ BGSU—OHIO @ M-OH—
All 67 Week 11 games ›