Baylor @ BYU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at BYU · Conference game

Baylor

4-2 · Power #38

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

BYU

6-0 · Power #14

projected

BAY 17%

83% BYU

Spread

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Total

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model 49.5

Model line

BYU -13.5

BYU 83% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	—
BYU WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—

Venue/role: BAY away; BYU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
BYU UOUUO	3-3	50%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
BYU	9-1 90%	8-1 89%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baylor

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs TTU	W59–35WO
Nov 28	@ HOU	L24–31LU

BYU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ KU	L13–17LU
Nov 28	vs CIN	W26–14WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 2–3 BYU BYU leads · 5 games since 1983 · BYU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	BYU 34 @ Baylor 28	BAY -3.5	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+4.5 →+8.0▲ 3.5#38

BYU+10.7 →+15.4▲ 4.7#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BAY

Longer bar = better

BYU

#99

Offense

BYU better ▶

#23

#14

Defense

Even

#18

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.5 #40

82 plays #1

Pace

◀ BAY faster

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	BAY off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #65	15.2 #14	BYU
Yards / play	5.33 #111	4.42 #11	BYU
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	−0.01 #27	BYU
Success rate	37% #128	35% #20	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #40	14.7 #10	BAY
Yards / play	6.79 #18	4.59 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #17	−0.07 #10	Even
Success rate	50% #15	35% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.3 #65	10.5 #41	16.8 #52	6.7 #54	6.5 #81	13.2 #70
BYU allowed	3.3 #35	4.0 #19	7.3 #16	2.2 #13	5.7 #57	7.8 #20

BYU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.3 #19	12.2 #23	21.5 #16	6.3 #65	5.7 #103	12.0 #88
BAY allowed	4.3 #57	2.8 #6	7.2 #14	2.7 #24	4.8 #35	7.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.