Iowa State @ Baylor: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Baylor · Conference game

Kickoff forecast66°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

3-3 · Power #49

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Baylor

4-2 · Power #38

projected

ISU 33%

67% BAY

Spread

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Total

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model 50

Model line

BAY -6

BAY 67% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWLPL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	—
BAY WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ISU away; BAY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
BAY UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs CIN	L30–38LO
Nov 20	@ UCF	W38–35LO
Nov 28	vs KSU	W24–21WU

Baylor

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ BYU	L28–34LO
Nov 21	vs TTU	W59–35WO
Nov 28	@ HOU	L24–31LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ISU 2–0 BAY ISU leads · 2 games since 2023 · ISU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Baylor 21 @ Iowa State 43	ISU -12.5	ISU W
Oct 28 2023	Iowa State 30 @ Baylor 18	ISU -3	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+6.2 →+4.7▼ 1.5#50

BAY+4.5 →+8.0▲ 3.5#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ISU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#83

Offense

◀ ISU better

#99

#77

Defense

BAY better ▶

#14

+0.5 #36

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

+0.2 #62

62 plays #117

Pace

BAY faster ▶

82 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	ISU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #68	14.7 #10	BAY
Yards / play	5.83 #71	4.59 #19	BAY
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	−0.07 #10	BAY
Success rate	39% #112	35% #15	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	BAY off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #65	21.7 #51	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #111	5.84 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.11 #83	Even
Success rate	37% #128	42% #74	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #50	9.7 #56	16.7 #55	5.0 #95	8.0 #50	13.0 #75
BAY allowed	4.3 #57	2.8 #6	7.2 #14	2.7 #24	4.8 #35	7.5 #18

BAY scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.3 #65	10.5 #41	16.8 #52	6.7 #54	6.5 #81	13.2 #70
ISU allowed	5.8 #95	6.8 #64	12.7 #78	3.5 #38	5.5 #50	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.