TCU @ Arizona: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Arizona · Conference game

Kickoff forecast74°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

TCU

3-3 · Power #36

projected

Fri 10:15 PM ET

Arizona

5-1 · Power #31

projected

TCU 35%

65% ARIZ

Spread

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Total

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model 48

Model line

ARIZ -5.5

ARIZ 65% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
ARIZ LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: TCU away; ARIZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
ARIZ UOOUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ARIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

TCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs KSU	L28–41LO
Nov 21	vs UTAH	W13–7WU
Nov 26	@ TTU	W35–34LO

Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UTAH	W23–10WU
Nov 21	@ KSU	W23–17WU
Nov 28	vs ASU	W23–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 1–0 ARIZ TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Arizona 28 @ TCU 49	TCU -10.5	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+8.0 →+8.7▲ 0.7#36

ARIZ+8.6 →+9.8▲ 1.2#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TCU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#88

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#19

Defense

◀ TCU better

#24

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

◀ TCU better

−0.5 #109

66 plays #73

Pace

Even

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	TCU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	19.0 #32	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.94 #62	4.87 #28	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	−0.04 #16	ARIZ
Success rate	41% #92	36% #21	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #30	12.2 #3	TCU
Yards / play	6.83 #14	4.33 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #20	−0.09 #7	Even
Success rate	50% #11	34% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.3 #65	6.3 #106	12.7 #94	5.7 #81	5.7 #103	11.3 #93
ARIZ allowed	5.7 #89	4.0 #19	9.7 #44	2.3 #19	7.0 #89	9.3 #41

ARIZ scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.7 #30	10.3 #44	19.0 #33	8.2 #24	8.5 #41	16.7 #26
TCU allowed	2.8 #18	6.0 #47	8.8 #31	1.0 #2	2.3 #2	3.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.