New Mexico @ Nevada: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Nevada · Conference game

New Mexico

5-1 · Power #56

projected

Fri 9:00 PM ET

Nevada

2-4 · Power #109

projected

UNM 82%

18% NEV

Spread

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Total

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model 48

Model line

UNM -12.5

UNM 82% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-1	—
NEV LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UNM away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1
NEV UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
NEV	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UNLV	W40–35WO
Nov 21	@ WYO	L45–49LO
Nov 28	vs AFA	W20–3WU

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ NIU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs HAW	L13–34LO
Nov 28	@ UNLV	L17–42LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNM 1–1 NEV Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · UNM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Nevada 22 @ New Mexico 24	UNM -14.5	NEV W
Oct 28 2023	New Mexico 24 @ Nevada 34	Pick’em	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−4.8 →+3.8▲ 8.6#55

NEV−13.2 →−10.8▲ 2.4#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UNM

Longer bar = better

NEV

#52

Offense

◀ UNM better

#94

Defense

◀ UNM better

#56

+2.8 #1

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−1.3 #136

64 plays #93

Pace

Even

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #10	23.5 #66	UNM
Yards / play	5.91 #67	4.90 #30	NEV
PPA / play	+0.18 #58	+0.12 #85	UNM
Success rate	43% #73	39% #44	NEV

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	NEV off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #89	10.5 #1	UNM
Yards / play	5.71 #84	4.51 #12	UNM
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	−0.18 #1	UNM
Success rate	40% #103	32% #1	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.0 #50	11.3 #30	18.3 #39	12.2 #2	9.2 #25	21.3 #3
NEV allowed	3.3 #35	8.3 #88	11.7 #64	2.5 #23	7.8 #103	10.3 #57

NEV scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	6.3 #65	4.5 #128	10.8 #109	7.3 #38	6.8 #71	14.2 #54
UNM allowed	1.7 #6	2.8 #6	4.5 #2	1.2 #4	4.8 #35	6.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.