Nevada @ Northern Illinois: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Nevada

2-4 · Power #109

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Northern Illinois

0-6 · Power #134

projected

NEV 65%

35% NIU

Spread

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Total

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model 49

Model line

NEV -5.5

NEV 65% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
NIU LWLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	—

Venue/role: NEV away; NIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
NIU OOUUO	3-3	50%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs HAW	L13–34LO
Nov 28	@ UNLV	L17–42LO

Northern Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ NDSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−13.2 →−10.8▲ 2.4#108

NIU−14.7 →−19.3▼ 4.6#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NEV

Longer bar = better

NIU

#94

Offense

◀ NEV better

#130

#56

Defense

◀ NEV better

#132

−1.3 #136

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

−0.2 #86

64 plays #96

Pace

Even

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: NEV offense

	NEV off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #89	35.7 #132	NEV
Yards / play	5.71 #84	6.38 #124	NEV
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.29 #135	NEV
Success rate	40% #103	51% #137	NEV

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NEV defense

	NIU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #137	23.5 #66	NEV
Yards / play	4.90 #126	4.90 #30	NEV
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.12 #85	NEV
Success rate	38% #123	39% #44	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	6.3 #65	4.5 #128	10.8 #109	7.3 #38	6.8 #71	14.2 #54
NIU allowed	10.8 #137	12.0 #129	22.8 #136	8.2 #123	4.7 #32	12.8 #93

NIU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.8 #121	6.2 #108	9.0 #123	1.8 #135	3.3 #135	5.2 #138
NEV allowed	3.3 #35	8.3 #88	11.7 #64	2.5 #23	7.8 #103	10.3 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.