San José State @ Air Force: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Air Force · Conference game

San José State

4-3 · Power #111

projected

Sat 7:00 PM ET

Air Force

5-1 · Power #90

projected

SJSU 17%

83% AFA

Spread

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Total

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model 52

Model line

AFA -13.5

AFA 83% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	4-0	—
AFA LLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: SJSU away; AFA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3
AFA OOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
AFA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San José State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UNLV	L16–27LU
Nov 27	vs NDSU	No meeting since 2023

Air Force

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ UNM	L3–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

SJSU 3–6 AFA AFA leads · 9 games since 1996 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Air Force 26 @ San José State 16	SJSU -6.5	AFA W
Sep 7 2024	San José State 17 @ Air Force 7	AFA -1.5	SJSU W
Sep 22 2023	Air Force 45 @ San José State 20	AFA -6.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−10.3 →−10.9▼ 0.6#109

AFA−15.2 →−5.2▲ 10.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SJSU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#94

Offense

AFA better ▶

#51

#67

Defense

AFA better ▶

#49

0.0 #70

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.5 #35

67 plays #66

Pace

AFA faster ▶

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	SJSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	19.7 #38	AFA
Yards / play	5.77 #79	5.46 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.04 #44	AFA
Success rate	40% #104	38% #42	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #61	21.7 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #88	5.38 #67	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	+0.07 #59	AFA
Success rate	49% #23	42% #89	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	1.4 #136	6.3 #107	7.7 #129	5.7 #80	8.0 #50	13.7 #62
AFA allowed	2.8 #18	8.0 #82	10.8 #53	4.5 #64	3.3 #10	7.8 #20

AFA scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.3 #116	10.7 #39	14.0 #83	5.2 #91	10.2 #12	15.3 #38
SJSU allowed	1.4 #3	6.1 #50	7.6 #17	7.3 #108	6.4 #77	13.7 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.