North Dakota State @ San José State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at San José State · Conference game

North Dakota State

6-1 · Power #74

projected

Fri 3:30 PM ET

San José State

4-3 · Power #111

projected

NDSU 68%

32% SJSU

Spread

—

Total

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model 46.5

Model line

NDSU -6.5

NDSU 68% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
SJSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	0-3	—

Venue/role: NDSU away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
SJSU UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
SJSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Dakota State

No more games this season.

San José State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NDSU−11.9 →−1.9▲ 10.0#74

SJSU−10.3 →−10.9▼ 0.6#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NDSU

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#80

Offense

◀ NDSU better

#94

Defense

◀ NDSU better

#67

+1.1 #9

Turnovers

◀ NDSU better

0.0 #70

65 plays #80

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NDSU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #70	21.7 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #92	5.38 #67	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.07 #59	Even
Success rate	42% #85	42% #89	Even

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	SJSU off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	11.3 #2	NDSU
Yards / play	5.77 #79	4.26 #4	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	−0.15 #3	NDSU
Success rate	40% #104	36% #23	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NDSU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	6.4 #62	12.6 #19	19.0 #33	6.6 #58	3.9 #125	10.4 #105
SJSU allowed	1.4 #3	6.1 #50	7.6 #17	7.3 #108	6.4 #77	13.7 #108

SJSU scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	1.4 #136	6.3 #107	7.7 #129	5.7 #80	8.0 #50	13.7 #62
NDSU allowed	2.0 #8	3.9 #17	5.9 #6	1.3 #5	4.1 #22	5.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.