Texas @ Texas A&M: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Texas

4-2 · Power #8

projected

Fri 7:30 PM ET

Texas A&M

4-3 · Power #24

projected

TEX 60%

40% TA&M

Spread

TEX -2.5

Total

53.5

model 45

Spread edge

TEX by 5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTEX -2.5

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTEX -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now53.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (289 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTEX -2.5

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 2.5-point road favorite at TA&M, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2.3; 57.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M @ TEX 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–27	L	U54.5
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	49–25	W	O50.5
Very close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	21–26	L	U55
Very close	BYU @ CIN 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	26–14	W	U56.5
Very close	ISU @ KU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	36–45	L	O52.5
Very close	LSU @ FLA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–27	L	U56.5
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Close	USC @ PSU 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	31–23	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	1-5
TA&M LLWLL	3-4	43%	3-2	0-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; TA&M home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
TA&M OUUUU	2-5	29%	4-3

In 1492 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
TA&M	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas

No more games this season.

Texas A&M

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TEX 2–0 TA&M TEX leads · 2 games since 2023 · TEX has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2025	Texas A&M 17 @ Texas 27	TA&M -2.5	TEX W
Nov 30 2024	Texas 17 @ Texas A&M 7	TEX -4.5	TEX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+18.4 →+20.5▲ 2.1#8

TA&M+19.7 →+11.6▼ 8.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TEX

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#90

Offense

Even

#86

#16

Defense

◀ TEX better

#45

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+0.1 #67

67 plays #67

Pace

Even

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	TEX off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #64	17.1 #26	TA&M
Yards / play	5.43 #105	5.41 #68	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.02 #39	TA&M
Success rate	43% #76	39% #46	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	TA&M off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #70	17.8 #28	TEX
Yards / play	5.11 #118	4.15 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	−0.01 #25	TEX
Success rate	43% #68	34% #10	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #35	7.8 #90	15.8 #65	4.5 #107	9.8 #17	14.3 #52
TA&M allowed	3.0 #30	3.9 #18	6.9 #11	8.9 #129	1.4 #1	10.3 #55

TA&M scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	5.7 #81	8.7 #76	14.4 #80	5.3 #90	9.7 #18	15.0 #40
TEX allowed	2.7 #16	5.7 #37	8.3 #27	3.8 #41	5.7 #57	9.5 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.