Texas A&M @ Oklahoma: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Texas A&M

4-3 · Power #24

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Oklahoma

3-3 · Power #22

projected

TA&M 42%

58% OU

Spread

OU -2.5

Total

51.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

OU by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOU -2.5

Total51.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowOU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now51.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (377 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOU -2.5

Total51.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 2.5-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.3 against an average line of 2.5; 51.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	LOU vs CLEM 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	19–20	L	U50.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	34–35	L	O52.5
Very close	SC vs CLEM 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–28	L	U45.5
Very close	CLEM vs SMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–35	L	O49.5
Very close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	44–13	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LLWLL	3-4	43%	0-2	0-2
OU LLLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OUUUU	2-5	29%	4-3
OU UUOOU	2-4	33%	3-3

In 1585 games with totals 47.5–55.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
OU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs TEX	L17–27LU

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ MIZ	W17–6WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+19.7 →+11.6▼ 8.1#25

OU+15.2 →+12.0▼ 3.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TA&M

Longer bar = better

#85

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#123

#45

Defense

OU better ▶

#14

+0.1 #67

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−1.3 #135

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	TA&M off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #69	18.2 #29	OU
Yards / play	5.11 #118	4.59 #17	OU
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	−0.11 #5	OU
Success rate	43% #68	33% #3	OU

When OU has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	OU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	17.1 #26	TA&M
Yards / play	4.97 #123	5.41 #68	TA&M
PPA / play	−0.06 #133	+0.02 #39	TA&M
Success rate	38% #125	39% #46	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	5.7 #81	8.7 #76	14.4 #80	5.3 #89	9.7 #18	15.0 #40
OU allowed	4.7 #68	6.7 #62	11.3 #60	0.5 #1	6.3 #72	6.8 #12

OU scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	4.0 #98	4.5 #128	8.5 #125	7.2 #39	5.7 #103	12.8 #78
TA&M allowed	3.0 #29	3.9 #17	6.9 #11	8.9 #129	1.4 #1	10.3 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.