LSU @ Tennessee: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Tennessee · Conference game

LSU

5-2 · Power #6

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Tennessee

6-1 · Power #11

projected

LSU 55%

45% TENN

Spread

LSU -1.5

Total

57.5

model 52.5

Spread edge

LSU by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLSU -1.5

Total57.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLSU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now57.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (194 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLSU -1.5

Total57.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at TENN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 2.5; 49.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Very close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Very close	TA&M @ TEX 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–27	L	U54.5
Very close	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	31–24	W	P55
Very close	UGA @ MISS 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	10–28	L	U55
Close	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	21–26	L	U55
Close	BYU @ CIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	26–14	W	U56.5
Close	ORE @ USC 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	41–27	W	O60.5
Close	USC @ PSU 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	31–23	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LWLLW	3-4	43%	0-2	3-4
TENN LWWLW	4-3	57%	3-2	2-0

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; TENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU UUOOU	4-3	57%	5-2
TENN UUUUU	1-6	14%	6-1

In 1204 games with totals 53.5–61.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ ARK	W23–22LU

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ VAN	L24–45LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+12.7 →+22.8▲ 10.1#6

TENN+14.3 →+17.6▲ 3.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

LSU

Longer bar = better

TENN

#20

Offense

◀ LSU better

#61

Defense

Even

#15

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.4 #42

79 plays #3

Pace

◀ LSU faster

69 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #7	14.7 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #43	4.58 #14	TENN
PPA / play	+0.25 #25	−0.14 #4	TENN
Success rate	52% #4	37% #29	LSU

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	TENN off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #42	15.9 #17	LSU
Yards / play	5.84 #69	4.28 #5	LSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	−0.09 #8	LSU
Success rate	43% #65	32% #2	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	10.3 #16	9.0 #72	19.3 #30	12.7 #1	7.4 #57	20.1 #8
TENN allowed	2.9 #22	2.9 #9	5.7 #5	3.9 #45	5.1 #44	9.0 #36

TENN scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.9 #76	8.1 #85	14.0 #83	10.4 #11	9.0 #29	19.4 #9
LSU allowed	2.9 #22	5.4 #34	8.3 #24	2.4 #21	4.0 #18	6.4 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.